Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (92%). 2 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Canucks vs. Sharks: O/U 6.5
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (33%) · Over at 8.5¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 30
⚠️
Avoid
Over
6
Over 33%
1 arb excluded
$1.9K
$-1.5K
39.1¢ → 8.5¢
-78% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 9%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Under 92%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 ComingBack | Underavg 47¢ | $1.0K | $914.89 | -$31.91 | 61% 3907-2452 (6359) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR | Overavg 39¢ | $1.9K | $474.63 | $-1.4K | 49% 690-725 (1415) |
 RN1 | Underavg 59¢ | $502.68 | $383.4 | -$119.28 | 54% 56128-48277 (104405) |
38 38791873984189ARB<$100 | Underavg 59¢ | $144.16 | $85.89 | +$11.49 | — |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 59¢ | $75.52 | $57.6 | -$17.92 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 39¢ | $20.06 | $28.29 | +$29.41 | |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Overavg 53¢ | $18.02 | $18.7 | +$0.51 | 58% 28303-20884 (49187) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Underavg 58.3¢ | $3.38 | $2.61 | -$0.77 | 52% 3869-3521 (7390) |
TO topdogbigboi<$100 | Underavg 54¢ | $2.16 | $1.8 | -$0.36 | — |
ComingBackInvested
$1,000
Value
$914.89
PnL
-$31.91
Record
61%
3907-2452 (6359)
Invested
$1,851.04
Value
$474.63
PnL
$-1.4K
Record
49%
690-725 (1415)
RN1Invested
$502.68
Value
$383.4
PnL
-$119.28
Record
54%
56128-48277 (104405)
Invested
$144.16
Value
$85.89
PnL
+$11.49
Record
—
Both legs:
Invested
$18.02
Value
$18.7
PnL
+$0.51
Record
58%
28303-20884 (49187)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$3.38
Value
$2.61
PnL
-$0.77
Record
52%
3869-3521 (7390)
Invested
$2.16
Value
$1.8
PnL
-$0.36
Record
—
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
8.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.