Spread: Sharks (-1.5)

1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Canucks (20%) · Canucks at 60¢ · $3K held · ends Oct 30

Sharks41¢Canucks59¢Ends Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Canucks

Consensus Traders

Canucks 20%

Total Value

$3.2K

Combined PnL

$10.53

Research grade

NeutralCanucks at 60%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Canucks

1 of 5 top traders (20%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Sharks41%

Canucks60%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Canucks1 trader

Total Value$2.4K

Total Shares4,026

Combined PnL+$20.13

Sharks4 traders

Total Value$784.47

Total Shares1,937

Combined PnL-$9.59

Canucks — 20%Sharks — 80%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TA taylorsversion	Canucksavg 59¢	$2.4K	$2.4K	+$20.13	54% 122-105 (227)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Sharksavg 41¢	$740	$730.98	-$9.02	54% 17003-14249 (31252)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Sharksavg 40.9¢	$44.6	$44.15	-$0.45	55% 6989-5609 (12598)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Sharksavg 41¢	$7.42	$7.33	-$0.09	57% 13340-10198 (23538)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Sharksavg 41¢	$2.05	$2.03	-$0.02	47% 2160-2464 (4624)

taylorsversion

Canucks

Invested

$2,375.16

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$20.13

Record

54%

122-105 (227)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Sharks

Invested

$740

Value

$730.98

PnL

-$9.02

Record

54%

17003-14249 (31252)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Sharks

Invested

$44.6

Value

$44.15

PnL

-$0.45

Record

55%

6989-5609 (12598)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Sharks

Invested

$7.42

Value

$7.33

PnL

-$0.09

Record

57%

13340-10198 (23538)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Sharks

Invested

$2.05

Value

$2.03

PnL

-$0.02

Record

47%

2160-2464 (4624)

Research grade

NeutralCanucks at 60%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Canucks

1 of 5 top traders (20%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Canucks wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance61.7%

59.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$62.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

162.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.