Canucks vs. Sharks
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Sharks (83%) · Sharks at 61¢ · $21K held · ends Oct 30
⚖️
Neutral
Sharks
6
Sharks 83%
$21.4K
-$72.63
61.2¢ → 60.5¢
-1% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralSharks at 61%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 92%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on Sharks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 PEYZ-BIGGEST-FAN | Sharksavg 61¢ | $12.2K | $12.1K | -$100 | 53% 908-794 (1702) |
TA taylorsversionCTR | Canucksavg 38.8¢ | $5.5K | $5.6K | +$99.1 | 54% 122-105 (227) |
CO cocococococo | Sharksavg 62.6¢ | $2.4K | $2.4K | -$61.09 | 52% 1649-1523 (3172) |
 VeryLucky888 | Sharksavg 61¢ | $1.2K | $1.2K | -$10 | 58% 41239-29904 (71143) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Sharksavg 61.5¢ | $35.67 | $35.09 | -$0.58 | 58% 28255-20837 (49092) |
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Sharksavg 61¢ | $7.32 | $7.26 | -$0.06 | 49% 12407-12722 (25129) |
PEYZ-BIGGEST-FANInvested
$12,200
Value
$12.1K
PnL
-$100
Record
53%
908-794 (1702)
Invested
$5,538.2
Value
$5.6K
PnL
+$99.1
Record
54%
122-105 (227)
Invested
$2,432.76
Value
$2.4K
PnL
-$61.09
Record
52%
1649-1523 (3172)
VeryLucky888Invested
$1,220
Value
$1.2K
PnL
-$10
Record
58%
41239-29904 (71143)
Invested
$35.67
Value
$35.09
PnL
-$0.58
Record
58%
28255-20837 (49092)
Invested
$7.32
Value
$7.26
PnL
-$0.06
Record
49%
12407-12722 (25129)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
60.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.