Canucks vs. Golden Knights

3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Golden Knights (38%) · Golden Knights at 80¢ · $10K held · ends Nov 16

Canucks21¢Golden Knights79¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Golden Knights

Consensus Traders

Golden Knights 38%

Total Value

$9.5K

Combined PnL

$16.31

Smart Money Entry

79.5¢ → 79.5¢

+0% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralGolden Knights at 80%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Golden Knights

3 of 8 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Canucks21%

Golden Knights80%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Golden Knights3 traders

Total Value$8.9K

Total Shares10,989

Combined PnL-$3.85

Canucks5 traders

Total Value$627.87

Total Shares2,995

Combined PnL+$20.16

Golden Knights — 38%Canucks — 62%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xf62B709646bdf9bc15BEDB094eE6AC062857844A-1763873985459	Golden Knightsavg 79.9¢	$7.7K	$7.7K	-$39.42	65% 15-8 (23)
HO HomeRunHazard	Golden Knightsavg 77¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$37.18	56% 3861-3029 (6890)
VeryLucky888CTR	Canucksavg 20¢	$400	$410	+$10	53% 1770-1556 (3326)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Canucksavg 20¢	$80	$82	+$2	55% 631-510 (1141)
HI hi774cCTR<$100	Canucksavg 20¢	$75.2	$77.08	+$1.88	25% 227-676 (903)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Canucksavg 20.1¢	$72.53	$41.66	+$1.62	50% 2024-2058 (4082)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Canucksavg 22.9¢	$12.47	$17.13	+$4.66	52% 2195-1999 (4194)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100	Golden Knightsavg 78¢	$13.26	$11.65	-$1.61	52% 382-349 (731)

0xf62B709646bdf9bc15BEDB094eE6AC062857844A-1763873985459

Golden Knights

Invested

$7,706.79

Value

$7.7K

PnL

-$39.42

Record

65%

15-8 (23)

HomeRunHazard

Golden Knights

Invested

$1,181.74

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$37.18

Record

56%

3861-3029 (6890)

VeryLucky888CTR

Canucks

Invested

$400

Value

$410

PnL

+$10

Record

53%

1770-1556 (3326)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Canucks

Invested

$80

Value

$82

PnL

+$2

Record

55%

631-510 (1141)

hi774cCTR<$100

Canucks

Invested

$75.2

Value

$77.08

PnL

+$1.88

Record

25%

227-676 (903)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Canucks

Invested

$72.53

Value

$41.66

PnL

+$1.62

Record

50%

2024-2058 (4082)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Canucks

Invested

$12.47

Value

$17.13

PnL

+$4.66

Record

52%

2195-1999 (4194)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100

Golden Knights

Invested

$13.26

Value

$11.65

PnL

-$1.61

Record

52%

382-349 (731)

Research grade

NeutralGolden Knights at 80%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Golden Knights

3 of 8 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Golden Knights wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance81.3%

79.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$23.02

Max Loss

-$100.00

123.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.