Canucks vs. Oilers

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Oilers (56%) · Oilers at 78¢ · $22K held · ends Nov 8

Canucks23¢Oilers77¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Oilers

Consensus Traders

Oilers 56%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$21.7K

Combined PnL

-$359.66

Smart Money Entry

77.3¢ → 77.5¢

+0% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralOilers at 78%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Oilers

5 of 9 top traders (56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Canucks23%

Oilers78%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Oilers5 traders

Total Value$18.9K

Total Shares24,773

Combined PnL-$276.56

Canucks4 traders

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares8,932

Combined PnL-$83.1

Oilers — 56%Canucks — 44%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LI Libratus007	Oilersavg 77.9¢	$12.7K	$12.5K	-$225.69	76% 19-6 (25)
RO royalestake	Oilersavg 76¢	$4.6K	$4.5K	-$61.49	47% 414-461 (875)
nigiri99	Oilersavg 77¢	$1.7K	$1.8K	+$11.35	46% 8770-10464 (19234)
TA taylorsversionCTR	Canucksavg 23.6¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	-$75.13	50% 144-146 (290)
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Canucksavg 23¢	$766.31	$759.3	-$7.01	54% 18557-15589 (34146)
└ Canucks leg	Canucksavg 23¢	$424.45	$415.23	-$9.23
└ Oilers leg	Oilersavg 77¢	$341.86	$344.08	+$2.22
VeryLucky888CTR	Canucksavg 23¢	$460	$403.31	-$6.89	58% 47904-34520 (82424)
0xheavy888	Oilersavg 76¢	$158.25	$157.29	-$0.96	56% 8223-6528 (14751)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Canucksavg 23¢	$43.24	$42.3	-$0.94	54% 10485-8797 (19282)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Canucksavg 23¢	$6.46	$6.32	-$0.14	58% 23579-16943 (40522)
38 38791873984189<$100	Oilersavg 71¢	$3.61	$3.82	+$0.23	48% 62396-67251 (129647)

Libratus007

Oilers

Invested

$12,687.33

Value

$12.5K

PnL

-$225.69

Record

76%

19-6 (25)

royalestake

Oilers

Invested

$4,561.48

Value

$4.5K

PnL

-$61.49

Record

47%

414-461 (875)

nigiri99

Oilers

Invested

$1,747.9

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$11.35

Record

46%

8770-10464 (19234)

taylorsversionCTR

Canucks

Invested

$1,632.86

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$75.13

Record

50%

144-146 (290)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Canucks

Invested

$766.31

Value

$759.3

PnL

-$7.01

Record

54%

18557-15589 (34146)

Both legs:

Canucks$424.4523¢-$9.23

Oilers$341.8677¢+$2.22

VeryLucky888CTR

Canucks

Invested

$460

Value

$403.31

PnL

-$6.89

Record

58%

47904-34520 (82424)

0xheavy888

Oilers

Invested

$158.25

Value

$157.29

PnL

-$0.96

Record

56%

8223-6528 (14751)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Canucks

Invested

$43.24

Value

$42.3

PnL

-$0.94

Record

54%

10485-8797 (19282)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Canucks

Invested

$6.46

Value

$6.32

PnL

-$0.14

Record

58%

23579-16943 (40522)

38791873984189<$100

Oilers

Invested

$3.61

Value

$3.82

PnL

+$0.23

Record

48%

62396-67251 (129647)

Research grade

NeutralOilers at 78%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Oilers

5 of 9 top traders (56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Oilers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance79.3%

77.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$26.03

Max Loss

-$100.00

126.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.