Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (95%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Canucks vs. Ducks: O/U 9.5
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (60%) · Over at 5.5¢ · $166 held · ended Oct 28
⚠️
Avoid
Over
5
Over 60%
$166.36
$0.03
12¢ → 5.5¢
-54% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 6%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Under 95%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Overavg 12¢ | $151.68 | $151.86 | +$0.17 | 54% 16767-14068 (30835) |
 0xheavy888<$100 | Underavg 87¢ | $10.44 | $10.56 | +$0.12 | 56% 6858-5498 (12356) |
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100 | Overavg 13¢ | $1.82 | $1.68 | -$0.14 | 54% 2891-2482 (5373) |
 poshposh<$100 | Underavg 85¢ | $1.32 | $1.41 | +$0.09 | 60% 9216-6172 (15388) |
NO NordhavenCapCTR<$100 | Overavg 15¢ | $1.07 | $0.86 | -$0.21 | 57% 2057-1547 (3604) |
Invested
$151.68
Value
$151.86
PnL
+$0.17
Record
54%
16767-14068 (30835)
0xheavy888<$100Invested
$10.44
Value
$10.56
PnL
+$0.12
Record
56%
6858-5498 (12356)
Invested
$1.82
Value
$1.68
PnL
-$0.14
Record
54%
2891-2482 (5373)
poshposh<$100Invested
$1.32
Value
$1.41
PnL
+$0.09
Record
60%
9216-6172 (15388)
Invested
$1.07
Value
$0.86
PnL
-$0.21
Record
57%
2057-1547 (3604)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
5.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.