Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (53%). 1 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Canucks vs. Ducks: O/U 6.5
1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (20%) · Under at 48¢ · $3K held · ends Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
Under
5
Under 20%
$2.9K
$30.45
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 48%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 5 top traders (20%)Underdog side (market favors Over 53%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
20% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RO royalestakeCTR | Underavg 47¢ | $2.8K | $2.8K | +$30.03 | 46% 366-422 (788) |
 0xheavy888<$100 | Overavg 52¢ | $80.98 | $42.52 | +$0.4 | 56% 6850-5490 (12340) |
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100 | Overavg 52¢ | $20.8 | $21.2 | +$0.2 | 54% 2891-2480 (5371) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Overavg 53¢ | $20.14 | $20.14 | -$0.19 | 58% 27884-20523 (48407) |
FO Forecastication2<$100 | Overavg 53¢ | $4.24 | $4.24 | +$0 | 50% 6747-6755 (13502) |
Invested
$2,819.95
Value
$2.8K
PnL
+$30.03
Record
46%
366-422 (788)
0xheavy888<$100Invested
$80.98
Value
$42.52
PnL
+$0.4
Record
56%
6850-5490 (12340)
Invested
$20.8
Value
$21.2
PnL
+$0.2
Record
54%
2891-2480 (5371)
Invested
$20.14
Value
$20.14
PnL
-$0.19
Record
58%
27884-20523 (48407)
Invested
$4.24
Value
$4.24
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
6747-6755 (13502)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
47.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.