Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Canucks, while the market favors Ducks (68%). 2 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Canucks vs. Ducks
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Canucks (67%) · Canucks at 32¢ · $765 held · ends Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
Canucks
3
Canucks 67%
$765.09
$13.72
33¢ → 32.5¢
-2% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralCanucks at 32%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Ducks 68%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888CTR | Canucksavg 33¢ | $415.03 | $415.03 | +$6.29 | 58% 40396-29173 (69569) |
 cassandra.torchlight | Ducksavg 65¢ | $278.62 | $285.05 | +$6.43 | 49% 255-263 (518) |
 0xheavy888CTR<$100 | Canucksavg 33¢ | $66 | $65 | +$1 | 56% 6841-5479 (12320) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
32.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.