Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Penguins, while the market favors Utah (55%). 2 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Utah vs. Penguins
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Penguins (67%) · Penguins at 46¢ · $3K held · ends Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
Penguins
3
Penguins 67%
$2.5K
$12.48
45.8¢ → 45.5¢
-1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralPenguins at 46%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Utah 55%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RO royalestakeCTR | Penguinsavg 45¢ | $1.2K | $1.3K | +$27.63 | 46% 372-430 (802) |
 cassandra.torchlightCTR | Penguinsavg 46.5¢ | $1.3K | $1.2K | -$14.85 | 49% 262-269 (531) |
 KnureKnume<$100 | Utahavg 57¢ | $5.75 | $5.45 | -$0.3 | 48% 395-431 (826) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
45.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.