Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (56%). 2 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Utah vs. Flyers: O/U 6.5
2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Over (29%) · Over at 44¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Over
7
Over 29%
$2.8K
-$16.09
45¢ → 43.5¢
-3% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 44%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 7 top traders (29%)Underdog side (market favors Under 56%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 ComingBackCTR | Overavg 45¢ | $1.5K | $1.5K | -$50 | 61% 3965-2495 (6460) |
HO HomeRunHazard | Underavg 55¢ | $979.21 | $1.0K | +$26.43 | 54% 17338-14559 (31897) |
AN AnonymousUsername | Underavg 55¢ | $229.53 | $235.79 | +$6.26 | 72% 6831-2625 (9456) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Overavg 43¢ | $23.07 | $23.32 | +$0.25 | 57% 29237-21622 (50859) |
 0xheavy888<$100 | Underavg 55¢ | $16.18 | $16.62 | +$0.44 | 55% 7318-5882 (13200) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Underavg 55¢ | $15.55 | $15.97 | +$0.42 | 56% 14240-11046 (25286) |
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100 | Underavg 56¢ | $12.88 | $13 | +$0.11 | 54% 3099-2669 (5768) |
ComingBackCTRInvested
$1,500
Value
$1.5K
PnL
-$50
Record
61%
3965-2495 (6460)
Invested
$979.21
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$26.43
Record
54%
17338-14559 (31897)
Invested
$229.53
Value
$235.79
PnL
+$6.26
Record
72%
6831-2625 (9456)
Invested
$23.07
Value
$23.32
PnL
+$0.25
Record
57%
29237-21622 (50859)
0xheavy888<$100Invested
$16.18
Value
$16.62
PnL
+$0.44
Record
55%
7318-5882 (13200)
Invested
$15.55
Value
$15.97
PnL
+$0.42
Record
56%
14240-11046 (25286)
Invested
$12.88
Value
$13
PnL
+$0.11
Record
54%
3099-2669 (5768)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
43.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.