Utah vs. Flyers: O/U 5.5
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (40%) · Over at 78¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Over
5
Over 40%
$2.7K
-$20.09
56¢ → 77.5¢
+38% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 78%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xE5F0AE9cc9aeF77ae3c2A64c9E69caa3F335dc1d-1773531520731 | Overavg 56¢ | $1.7K | $1.7K | +$0 | 32% 744-1577 (2321) |
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR | Underavg 44¢ | $867.55 | $867.55 | -$0 | 72% 6833-2629 (9462) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR | Underavg 51.1¢ | $157.91 | $135.89 | -$22.02 | 48% 1070-1175 (2245) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Underavg 44¢ | $12.44 | $12.44 | +$0 | 56% 14257-11059 (25316) |
UP UpTheBlues<$100 | Overavg 42¢ | $2.94 | $4.86 | +$1.92 | 59% 46944-33223 (80167) |
Invested
$1,680
Value
$1.7K
PnL
+$0
Record
32%
744-1577 (2321)
Invested
$867.55
Value
$867.55
PnL
-$0
Record
72%
6833-2629 (9462)
Invested
$157.91
Value
$135.89
PnL
-$22.02
Record
48%
1070-1175 (2245)
Invested
$12.44
Value
$12.44
PnL
+$0
Record
56%
14257-11059 (25316)
Invested
$2.94
Value
$4.86
PnL
+$1.92
Record
59%
46944-33223 (80167)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
77.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.