Maple Leafs vs. Canucks: O/U 6.5
1 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (17%) · Over at 55¢ · $5K held · ends Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Over
6
Over 17%
$4.5K
$11.73
Research grade
NeutralOver at 55%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 6 top traders (17%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
17% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RO roldy | Overavg 54¢ | $3.0K | $3.0K | +$27.69 | 55% 1422-1181 (2603) |
 ComingBackCTR | Underavg 46¢ | $1.5K | $1.5K | -$16.3 | 61% 3943-2470 (6413) |
 0xheavy888CTR<$100 | Underavg 45¢ | $50 | $22.75 | +$0.25 | 55% 7128-5716 (12844) |
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100 | Underavg 46¢ | $11.5 | $11.5 | -$0 | 50% 7034-7032 (14066) |
OD OddstormCTR<$100 | Underavg 45¢ | $2.25 | $2.3 | +$0.05 | 39% 424-670 (1094) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Underavg 45¢ | $2.25 | $2.3 | +$0.05 | 48% 2404-2633 (5037) |
Invested
$2,967.34
Value
$3.0K
PnL
+$27.69
Record
55%
1422-1181 (2603)
ComingBackCTRInvested
$1,500
Value
$1.5K
PnL
-$16.3
Record
61%
3943-2470 (6413)
0xheavy888CTR<$100Invested
$50
Value
$22.75
PnL
+$0.25
Record
55%
7128-5716 (12844)
Invested
$11.5
Value
$11.5
PnL
-$0
Record
50%
7034-7032 (14066)
Invested
$2.25
Value
$2.3
PnL
+$0.05
Record
39%
424-670 (1094)
Invested
$2.25
Value
$2.3
PnL
+$0.05
Record
48%
2404-2633 (5037)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.