Spread: Maple Leafs (-1.5)

2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Canucks (33%) · Canucks at 57¢ · $18K held · ends Oct 31

Maple Leafs43¢Canucks57¢Ends Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Canucks

Consensus Traders

Canucks 33%

Total Value

$18.2K

Combined PnL

$334.6

Smart Money Entry

58.9¢ → 57.5¢

-2% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralCanucks at 57%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Canucks

2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Maple Leafs43%

Canucks57%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Canucks2 traders

Total Value$10.5K

Total Shares17,573

Combined PnL+$107.87

Maple Leafs4 traders

Total Value$7.7K

Total Shares18,243

Combined PnL+$226.73

Canucks — 33%Maple Leafs — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RU rustin	Canucksavg 59¢	$9.2K	$9.3K	+$77.87	48% 474-516 (990)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Maple Leafsavg 41.2¢	$7.1K	$7.4K	+$222.26	54% 17179-14402 (31581)
0xheavy888	Canucksavg 58¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$30	55% 7155-5744 (12899)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR	Maple Leafsavg 40¢	$347.72	$352.07	+$4.35	73% 6703-2419 (9122)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Maple Leafsavg 40¢	$19.6	$19.85	+$0.25	58% 28818-21252 (50070)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Maple Leafsavg 41¢	$9.54	$9.43	-$0.12	57% 13877-10647 (24524)

rustin

Canucks

Invested

$9,188.34

Value

$9.3K

PnL

+$77.87

Record

48%

474-516 (990)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Maple Leafs

Invested

$7,130.85

Value

$7.4K

PnL

+$222.26

Record

54%

17179-14402 (31581)

0xheavy888

Canucks

Invested

$1,160

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$30

Record

55%

7155-5744 (12899)

AnonymousUsernameCTR

Maple Leafs

Invested

$347.72

Value

$352.07

PnL

+$4.35

Record

73%

6703-2419 (9122)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Maple Leafs

Invested

$19.6

Value

$19.85

PnL

+$0.25

Record

58%

28818-21252 (50070)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Maple Leafs

Invested

$9.54

Value

$9.43

PnL

-$0.12

Record

57%

13877-10647 (24524)

Research grade

NeutralCanucks at 57%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Canucks

2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Canucks wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance59.7%

57.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$67.47

Max Loss

-$100.00

167.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.