Maple Leafs vs. Kraken: O/U 6.5
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 53¢ · $4K held · ends Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
Over
4
Over 50%
$4.2K
-$40.05
53¢ → 52.5¢
-1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 53%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RO roldy | Overavg 53¢ | $3.2K | $3.1K | -$29.98 | 55% 1407-1171 (2578) |
 ComingBackCTR | Underavg 48¢ | $1.0K | $989.58 | -$10.42 | 61% 3850-2418 (6268) |
 0xheavy888<$100 | Overavg 52¢ | $26 | $26.25 | +$0.25 | 56% 6915-5529 (12444) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Underavg 47¢ | $8.93 | $9.12 | +$0.1 | 53% 3056-2718 (5774) |
Invested
$3,179.98
Value
$3.1K
PnL
-$29.98
Record
55%
1407-1171 (2578)
ComingBackCTRInvested
$1,000
Value
$989.58
PnL
-$10.42
Record
61%
3850-2418 (6268)
0xheavy888<$100Invested
$26
Value
$26.25
PnL
+$0.25
Record
56%
6915-5529 (12444)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$8.93
Value
$9.12
PnL
+$0.1
Record
53%
3056-2718 (5774)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.