Spread: Kraken (-2.5)
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Maple Leafs (83%) · Maple Leafs at 93¢ · $475 held · ended Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
Maple Leafs
6
Maple Leafs 83%
$475.45
$18.06
84¢ → 92.5¢
+10% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralMaple Leafs at 93%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 0xheavy888 | Maple Leafsavg 83¢ | $215.8 | $211.9 | -$3.9 | 56% 6940-5557 (12497) |
JU justaluckydude | Maple Leafsavg 86¢ | $265.38 | $166.7 | -$98.68 | 54% 10478-9105 (19583) |
28 2829CTR<$100 | Krakenavg 17¢ | $79.9 | $87 | +$120.5 | 46% 407-480 (887) |
BO BoomLaLa<$100 | Maple Leafsavg 52¢ | $4.46 | $4.63 | +$0.17 | 53% 11468-9984 (21452) |
HO HomeRunHazard<$100 | Maple Leafsavg 82¢ | $4.1 | $4.07 | -$0.03 | 54% 16897-14158 (31055) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Maple Leafsavg 57¢ | $1.15 | $1.14 | -$0.01 | 53% 3387-3055 (6442) |
0xheavy888Invested
$215.8
Value
$211.9
PnL
-$3.9
Record
56%
6940-5557 (12497)
Invested
$265.38
Value
$166.7
PnL
-$98.68
Record
54%
10478-9105 (19583)
Invested
$79.9
Value
$87
PnL
+$120.5
Record
46%
407-480 (887)
Invested
$4.46
Value
$4.63
PnL
+$0.17
Record
53%
11468-9984 (21452)
Invested
$4.1
Value
$4.07
PnL
-$0.03
Record
54%
16897-14158 (31055)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$1.15
Value
$1.14
PnL
-$0.01
Record
53%
3387-3055 (6442)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
92.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.