Spread: Kraken (-1.5)
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Maple Leafs (60%) · Maple Leafs at 75¢ · $11K held · ends Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
Maple Leafs
5
Maple Leafs 60%
$11.4K
-$65.1
72¢ → 74.5¢
+3% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralMaple Leafs at 75%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Maple Leafs. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | Maple Leafsavg 72¢ | $6.6K | $6.8K | +$228.66 | 54% 16868-14145 (31013) |
TA taylorsversionCTR | Krakenavg 28¢ | $3.7K | $3.4K | -$333.73 | 53% 118-103 (221) |
 cassandra.torchlight | Maple Leafsavg 72¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | +$37.5 | 49% 262-269 (531) |
 0xheavy888<$100 | Maple Leafsavg 72¢ | $72 | $74.5 | +$2.5 | 56% 6915-5529 (12444) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Krakenavg 26¢ | $1.3 | $1.28 | -$0.03 | 47% 2054-2350 (4404) |
Invested
$6,585
Value
$6.8K
PnL
+$228.66
Record
54%
16868-14145 (31013)
Invested
$3,738.92
Value
$3.4K
PnL
-$333.73
Record
53%
118-103 (221)
cassandra.torchlightInvested
$1,080
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$37.5
Record
49%
262-269 (531)
0xheavy888<$100Invested
$72
Value
$74.5
PnL
+$2.5
Record
56%
6915-5529 (12444)
Invested
$1.3
Value
$1.28
PnL
-$0.03
Record
47%
2054-2350 (4404)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
74.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.