Spread: Maple Leafs (-1.5)

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Kraken (60%) · Kraken at 80¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 29

Maple Leafs20¢Kraken80¢Ended Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Kraken

Consensus Traders

Kraken 60%

Total Value

$1.4K

Combined PnL

$10.35

Smart Money Entry

66¢ → 80¢

+21% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralKraken at 80%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Kraken

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Maple Leafs20%

Kraken80%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Kraken3 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares2,068

Combined PnL+$10.29

Maple Leafs2 traders

Total Value$3.78

Total Shares11

Combined PnL+$0.06

Kraken — 60%Maple Leafs — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VeryLucky888	Krakenavg 66¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$10	58% 40917-29601 (70518)
0xheavy888<$100	Krakenavg 65¢	$40.86	$41.17	+$0.31	56% 6932-5550 (12482)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Krakenavg 67¢	$3.35	$3.33	-$0.02	47% 2102-2381 (4483)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Maple Leafsavg 33¢	$2.08	$2.11	+$0.03	53% 3243-2909 (6152)
MO mooseborzoiiCTR<$100	Maple Leafsavg 33¢	$1.65	$1.68	+$0.03	50% 1143-1136 (2279)

VeryLucky888

Kraken

Invested

$1,320

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$10

Record

58%

40917-29601 (70518)

0xheavy888<$100

Kraken

Invested

$40.86

Value

$41.17

PnL

+$0.31

Record

56%

6932-5550 (12482)

ameisgoat11<$100

Kraken

Invested

$3.35

Value

$3.33

PnL

-$0.02

Record

47%

2102-2381 (4483)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Maple Leafs

Invested

$2.08

Value

$2.11

PnL

+$0.03

Record

53%

3243-2909 (6152)

mooseborzoiiCTR<$100

Maple Leafs

Invested

$1.65

Value

$1.68

PnL

+$0.03

Record

50%

1143-1136 (2279)

Research grade

NeutralKraken at 80%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Kraken

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Kraken wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance81.8%

80.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$22.29

Max Loss

-$100.00

122.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.