Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Kraken, while the market favors Maple Leafs (56%). 8 of 17 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Maple Leafs vs. Kraken

8 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold Kraken (47%) · Kraken at 45¢ · $59K held · ends Oct 29

Maple Leafs56¢Kraken44¢Ends Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Kraken

Consensus Traders

Kraken 47%

Total Value

$58.7K

Combined PnL

$2.9K

Smart Money Entry

46.7¢ → 44.5¢

-5% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralKraken at 45%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Kraken

8 of 17 top traders (47%)Underdog side (market favors Maple Leafs 56%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Maple Leafs56%

Kraken45%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Kraken8 traders

Total Value$46.3K

Total Shares91,718

Combined PnL+$3.5K

Maple Leafs9 traders

Total Value$12.4K

Total Shares23,509

Combined PnL-$547.54

Kraken — 47%Maple Leafs — 53%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TA taylorsversionCTR	Krakenavg 48¢	$24.9K	$26.2K	+$1.3K	53% 118-103 (221)
PA para-VisionCTR	Krakenavg 45¢	$9.0K	$10.1K	+$1.1K	56% 196-157 (353)
VI vibing123CTR	Krakenavg 44¢	$4.5K	$5.2K	+$668.72	52% 1541-1426 (2967)
RO royalestakeCTR	Krakenavg 46.2¢	$4.2K	$4.5K	+$385	46% 372-430 (802)
UP UpTheBlues	Maple Leafsavg 53.8¢	$3.3K	$3.4K	+$107.54	59% 44606-31003 (75609)
RO roldy	Maple Leafsavg 54¢	$8.1K	$2.2K	-$378.67	55% 1407-1171 (2578)
HO HomeRunHazard	Maple Leafsavg 55¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	+$18.53	54% 16864-14141 (31005)
MA MAGATheeStallion	Maple Leafsavg 55¢	$2.0K	$1.8K	-$199.98	58% 242-177 (419)
TO tomb2456	Maple Leafsavg 53¢	$1.6K	$1.5K	-$104.16	50% 275-273 (548)
VeryLucky888	Maple Leafsavg 55¢	$2.0K	$1.1K	+$10	58% 40752-29469 (70221)
LA LaarsY	Maple Leafsavg 55¢	$307.02	$309.81	+$2.79	50% 3373-3315 (6688)
CO cocococococoCTR	Krakenavg 48¢	$266.4	$280.28	+$13.88	52% 1646-1520 (3166)
GH ghorrock<$100	Maple Leafsavg 56¢	$34.51	$33.65	-$0.86	57% 13139-10016 (23155)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100	Maple Leafsavg 56¢	$23.52	$20.79	-$2.73	54% 2922-2509 (5431)
RL RLWGCTR<$100	Krakenavg 45¢	$13.5	$15.15	+$1.65	50% 7654-7675 (15329)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Krakenavg 44¢	$2.2	$2.23	+$0.02	47% 2041-2345 (4386)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Krakenavg 48¢	$1.08	$1.14	+$0.06	53% 3047-2709 (5756)

taylorsversionCTR

Kraken

Invested

$24,882.24

Value

$26.2K

PnL

+$1.3K

Record

53%

118-103 (221)

para-VisionCTR

Kraken

Invested

$8,999.98

Value

$10.1K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

56%

196-157 (353)

vibing123CTR

Kraken

Invested

$4,526.75

Value

$5.2K

PnL

+$668.72

Record

52%

1541-1426 (2967)

royalestakeCTR

Kraken

Invested

$4,160

Value

$4.5K

PnL

+$385

Record

46%

372-430 (802)

UpTheBlues

Maple Leafs

Invested

$3,320.83

Value

$3.4K

PnL

+$107.54

Record

59%

44606-31003 (75609)

roldy

Maple Leafs

Invested

$8,084.03

Value

$2.2K

PnL

-$378.67

Record

55%

1407-1171 (2578)

HomeRunHazard

Maple Leafs

Invested

$2,021.75

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$18.53

Record

54%

16864-14141 (31005)

MAGATheeStallion

Maple Leafs

Invested

$1,999.8

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$199.98

Record

58%

242-177 (419)

tomb2456

Maple Leafs

Invested

$1,577.34

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$104.16

Record

50%

275-273 (548)

VeryLucky888

Maple Leafs

Invested

$2,000

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$10

Record

58%

40752-29469 (70221)

LaarsY

Maple Leafs

Invested

$307.02

Value

$309.81

PnL

+$2.79

Record

50%

3373-3315 (6688)

cocococococoCTR

Kraken

Invested

$266.4

Value

$280.28

PnL

+$13.88

Record

52%

1646-1520 (3166)

ghorrock<$100

Maple Leafs

Invested

$34.51

Value

$33.65

PnL

-$0.86

Record

57%

13139-10016 (23155)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100

Maple Leafs

Invested

$23.52

Value

$20.79

PnL

-$2.73

Record

54%

2922-2509 (5431)

RLWGCTR<$100

Kraken

Invested

$13.5

Value

$15.15

PnL

+$1.65

Record

50%

7654-7675 (15329)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Kraken

Invested

$2.2

Value

$2.23

PnL

+$0.02

Record

47%

2041-2345 (4386)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Kraken

Invested

$1.08

Value

$1.14

PnL

+$0.06

Record

53%

3047-2709 (5756)

Research grade

NeutralKraken at 45%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Kraken

8 of 17 top traders (47%)Underdog side (market favors Maple Leafs 56%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Kraken wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance46.7%

44.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$113.95

Max Loss

-$100.00

214.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.