Lightning vs. Predators
3 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Lightning (100%) · Lightning at 60¢ · $6K held · ends Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Lightning
3
Lightning 100%
1 arb excluded
$5.8K
$11.46
60.4¢ → 60¢
-1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralLightning at 60%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 3 top traders (100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RO roldy | Lightningavg 60¢ | $3.6K | $3.6K | +$0 | 55% 1419-1179 (2598) |
CO cocococococo | Lightningavg 61.2¢ | $1.7K | $1.7K | +$9.12 | 52% 1656-1527 (3183) |
38 38791873984189ARB<$100 | Lightningavg 60¢ | $316 | $317 | +$1 | 46% 7951-9381 (17332) |
| └ Lightning leg | Lightningavg 60¢ | $237 | $237 | +$0 | |
| └ Predators leg | Predatorsavg 39.5¢ | $79 | $80 | +$1 | |
PA para-Vision | Lightningavg 60¢ | $140.56 | $140.56 | +$2.34 | 56% 209-165 (374) |
Invested
$3,600
Value
$3.6K
PnL
+$0
Record
55%
1419-1179 (2598)
Invested
$1,730.63
Value
$1.7K
PnL
+$9.12
Record
52%
1656-1527 (3183)
Invested
$316
Value
$317
PnL
+$1
Record
46%
7951-9381 (17332)
Both legs:
Invested
$140.56
Value
$140.56
PnL
+$2.34
Record
56%
209-165 (374)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
60.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.