Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Blue Jackets, while the market favors Lightning (70%). 1 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Blue Jackets (-1.5)

1 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Blue Jackets (13%) · Blue Jackets at 31¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 13

Blue Jackets31¢Lightning69¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Blue Jackets

Consensus Traders

Blue Jackets 13%

Total Value

$5.5K

Combined PnL

$135.12

Research grade

NeutralBlue Jackets at 31%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Blue Jackets

1 of 8 top traders (13%)Underdog side (market favors Lightning 70%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Blue Jackets31%

Lightning70%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Blue Jackets1 trader

Total Value$2.9K

Total Shares9,621

Combined PnL+$159.82

Lightning7 traders

Total Value$2.6K

Total Shares3,678

Combined PnL-$24.7

Blue Jackets — 13%Lightning — 87%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-1 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

13% of non-arb traders are on Blue Jackets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrLightning 83% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedLightning 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Lightning 86% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CH chubbytoroCTR	Blue Jacketsavg 28.8¢	$2.8K	$2.9K	+$159.82	27% 7-19 (26)
VeryLucky888	Lightningavg 70¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	-$10	53% 852-766 (1618)
0xheavy888	Lightningavg 71.3¢	$499	$490	-$9	56% 312-248 (560)
38 38791873984189	Lightningavg 70¢	$416.5	$413.53	-$2.98	48% 2366-2611 (4977)
nigiri99	Lightningavg 70¢	$130.9	$129.97	-$0.94	52% 388-362 (750)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382	Lightningavg 70.4¢	$116.86	$115.37	-$1.49	43% 119-161 (280)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Lightningavg 71¢	$10.65	$10.42	-$0.23	38% 509-821 (1330)
PA Pan9X<$100	Lightningavg 70¢	$10.5	$10.42	-$0.08	49% 1100-1151 (2251)

chubbytoroCTR

Blue Jackets

Invested

$2,774.71

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$159.82

Record

27%

7-19 (26)

VeryLucky888

Lightning

Invested

$1,400

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$10

Record

53%

852-766 (1618)

0xheavy888

Lightning

Invested

$499

Value

$490

PnL

-$9

Record

56%

312-248 (560)

38791873984189

Lightning

Invested

$416.5

Value

$413.53

PnL

-$2.98

Record

48%

2366-2611 (4977)

nigiri99

Lightning

Invested

$130.9

Value

$129.97

PnL

-$0.94

Record

52%

388-362 (750)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382

Lightning

Invested

$116.86

Value

$115.37

PnL

-$1.49

Record

43%

119-161 (280)

ameisgoat11<$100

Lightning

Invested

$10.65

Value

$10.42

PnL

-$0.23

Record

38%

509-821 (1330)

Pan9X<$100

Lightning

Invested

$10.5

Value

$10.42

PnL

-$0.08

Record

49%

1100-1151 (2251)

Research grade

NeutralBlue Jackets at 31%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Blue Jackets

1 of 8 top traders (13%)Underdog side (market favors Lightning 70%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-1 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

13% of non-arb traders are on Blue Jackets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrLightning 83% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedLightning 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Lightning 86% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Blue Jackets wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance32.6%

30.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$206.95

Max Loss

-$100.00

306.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.