Lightning vs. Sabres: O/U 6.5

3 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Over (33%) · Over at 53¢ · $7K held · ends Nov 12

Over53¢Under47¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 33%

Total Value

$7.0K

Combined PnL

-$18.05

Smart Money Entry

52¢ → 52.5¢

+1% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 53%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over53%

Under48%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over3 traders

Total Value$6.5K

Total Shares12,522

Combined PnL-$22.59

Under6 traders

Total Value$539.44

Total Shares1,105

Combined PnL+$4.53

Over — 33%Under — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Overavg 52¢	$5.4K	$5.4K	+$51.83	57% 3226-2432 (5658)
RO royalestake	Overavg 52¢	$1.1K	$1.0K	-$74.54	2% 3-184 (187)
38 38791873984189CTR	Underavg 47.7¢	$425.71	$424.17	-$1.54	48% 1419-1557 (2976)
OD OddstormCTR<$100	Underavg 48¢	$39.36	$42.23	+$2.87	23% 36-120 (156)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Underavg 48¢	$26.22	$28.13	+$1.91	31% 406-905 (1311)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Underavg 48¢	$26.37	$26.4	+$0.03	49% 683-724 (1407)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Underavg 48¢	$14	$15.02	+$1.02	31% 407-907 (1314)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Overavg 51¢	$13.26	$13.39	+$0.13	46% 292-339 (631)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Underavg 48¢	$3.24	$3.48	+$0.24	30% 399-910 (1309)

HomeRunHazard

Over

Invested

$5,390.22

Value

$5.4K

PnL

+$51.83

Record

57%

3226-2432 (5658)

royalestake

Over

Invested

$1,107.52

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$74.54

Record

3-184 (187)

38791873984189CTR

Under

Invested

$425.71

Value

$424.17

PnL

-$1.54

Record

48%

1419-1557 (2976)

OddstormCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$39.36

Value

$42.23

PnL

+$2.87

Record

23%

36-120 (156)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$26.22

Value

$28.13

PnL

+$1.91

Record

31%

406-905 (1311)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$26.37

Value

$26.4

PnL

+$0.03

Record

49%

683-724 (1407)

VenusianCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$14

Value

$15.02

PnL

+$1.02

Record

31%

407-907 (1314)

SnakeBall<$100

Over

Invested

$13.26

Value

$13.39

PnL

+$0.13

Record

46%

292-339 (631)

LimousinCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$3.24

Value

$3.48

PnL

+$0.24

Record

30%

399-910 (1309)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 53%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance54.7%

52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$82.67

Max Loss

-$100.00

182.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.