Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Sabres, while the market favors Lightning (64%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Spread: Lightning (-1.5)
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Sabres (80%) · Sabres at 37¢ · $32K held · ended Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
Sabres
5
Sabres 80%
$31.9K
$5.5K
67¢ → 36.5¢
-46% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralSabres at 37%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Lightning 64%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 95%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Sabres. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TA taylorsversion | Lightningavg 33¢ | $9.8K | $18.9K | +$9.1K | 53% 98-86 (184) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR | Sabresavg 67¢ | $14.8K | $11.7K | $-3.1K | 53% 1851-1666 (3517) |
DV dv-pmCTR | Sabresavg 67¢ | $969.49 | $766.91 | -$202.58 | — 7-5 (12) |
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR | Sabresavg 67¢ | $552 | $300.72 | -$251.28 | 15% 150-841 (991) |
38 38791873984189CTR | Sabresavg 66¢ | $256.73 | $206.16 | -$50.57 | 48% 1427-1570 (2997) |
Invested
$9,846.28
Value
$18.9K
PnL
+$9.1K
Record
53%
98-86 (184)
Invested
$14,783.16
Value
$11.7K
PnL
$-3.1K
Record
53%
1851-1666 (3517)
Invested
$969.49
Value
$766.91
PnL
-$202.58
Record
—
7-5 (12)
Invested
$552
Value
$300.72
PnL
-$251.28
Record
15%
150-841 (991)
Invested
$256.73
Value
$206.16
PnL
-$50.57
Record
48%
1427-1570 (2997)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
36.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.