Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Sabres, while the market favors Lightning (56%). 4 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Lightning vs. Sabres
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Sabres (67%) · Sabres at 45¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
Sabres
6
Sabres 67%
$2.7K
-$20.93
44.7¢ → 44.5¢
+0% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralSabres at 45%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Lightning 56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 97%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on Sabres. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888CTR | Sabresavg 44.5¢ | $1.7K | $1.7K | -$20 | 51% 361-341 (702) |
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Sabresavg 45¢ | $536.99 | $525.05 | -$11.93 | 57% 3109-2336 (5445) |
RO royalestake | Lightningavg 54¢ | $348.22 | $361.12 | +$12.9 | 2% 3-183 (186) |
CO cocococococo<$100 | Lightningavg 53¢ | $68.4 | $69.69 | +$1.29 | 3% 1-33 (34) |
WE westing.v1CTR<$100 | Sabresavg 47¢ | $43.86 | $41.06 | -$2.8 | 11% 8-63 (71) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Sabresavg 45¢ | $31.62 | $31.23 | -$0.39 | 54% 461-396 (857) |
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$1,675.28
Value
$1.7K
PnL
-$20
Record
51%
361-341 (702)
Invested
$536.99
Value
$525.05
PnL
-$11.93
Record
57%
3109-2336 (5445)
Invested
$348.22
Value
$361.12
PnL
+$12.9
Record
2%
3-183 (186)
Invested
$68.4
Value
$69.69
PnL
+$1.29
Record
3%
1-33 (34)
Invested
$43.86
Value
$41.06
PnL
-$2.8
Record
11%
8-63 (71)
Invested
$31.62
Value
$31.23
PnL
-$0.39
Record
54%
461-396 (857)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
44.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.