Spread: Blues (-1.5)

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Utah (78%) · Utah at 69¢ · $51K held · ends Nov 13

Blues32¢Utah68¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Utah

Consensus Traders

Utah 78%

Total Value

$51.1K

Combined PnL

-$85.87

Smart Money Entry

69.6¢ → 68.5¢

-2% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralUtah at 69%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Utah

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Blues32%

Utah69%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Utah7 traders

Total Value$35.8K

Total Shares52,262

Combined PnL-$557.01

Blues2 traders

Total Value$15.3K

Total Shares48,717

Combined PnL+$471.13

Utah — 78%Blues — 22%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

78% of non-arb traders are on Utah. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUtah 83% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Utah 78% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Utahavg 69.5¢	$33.2K	$32.7K	-$460.37	51% 2082-2008 (4090)
CH chubbytoroCTR	Bluesavg 30.5¢	$14.7K	$15.2K	+$468.13	29% 7-17 (24)
0xheavy888	Utahavg 70.8¢	$2.8K	$2.7K	-$89.91	54% 281-239 (520)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382	Utahavg 69.7¢	$278.91	$274	-$4.91	40% 80-118 (198)
38 38791873984189CTR	Bluesavg 31¢	$186	$189	+$3	48% 2255-2437 (4692)
GH ghorrock<$100	Utahavg 70.9¢	$35.61	$34.42	-$1.18	54% 997-856 (1853)
PA Pan9X<$100	Utahavg 72¢	$13.9	$10	-$0.45	49% 1083-1137 (2220)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Utahavg 72¢	$3.6	$3.45	-$0.15	38% 494-814 (1308)
RL RLWG<$100	Utahavg 69¢	$3.45	$3.43	-$0.02	66% 1793-926 (2719)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Utah

Invested

$33,207.91

Value

$32.7K

PnL

-$460.37

Record

51%

2082-2008 (4090)

chubbytoroCTR

Blues

Invested

$14,688.68

Value

$15.2K

PnL

+$468.13

Record

29%

7-17 (24)

0xheavy888

Utah

Invested

$2,819.99

Value

$2.7K

PnL

-$89.91

Record

54%

281-239 (520)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382

Utah

Invested

$278.91

Value

$274

PnL

-$4.91

Record

40%

80-118 (198)

38791873984189CTR

Blues

Invested

$186

Value

$189

PnL

+$3

Record

48%

2255-2437 (4692)

ghorrock<$100

Utah

Invested

$35.61

Value

$34.42

PnL

-$1.18

Record

54%

997-856 (1853)

Pan9X<$100

Utah

Invested

$13.9

Value

$10

PnL

-$0.45

Record

49%

1083-1137 (2220)

ameisgoat11<$100

Utah

Invested

$3.6

Value

$3.45

PnL

-$0.15

Record

38%

494-814 (1308)

RLWG<$100

Utah

Invested

$3.45

Value

$3.43

PnL

-$0.02

Record

66%

1793-926 (2719)

Research grade

NeutralUtah at 69%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Utah

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

78% of non-arb traders are on Utah. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUtah 83% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Utah 78% · 9

Aligned

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Utah wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance70.6%

68.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$41.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

141.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.