Blues vs. Red Wings: O/U 6.5

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (57%) · Under at 51¢ · $8K held · ended Oct 31

Over50¢Under50¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 57%

Total Value

$7.8K

Combined PnL

$486.57

Smart Money Entry

58¢ → 50.5¢

-13% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 51%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over50%

Under51%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over3 traders

Total Value$4.0K

Total Shares8,452

Combined PnL+$456.38

Under4 traders

Total Value$3.7K

Total Shares7,129

Combined PnL+$30.19

Over — 43%Under — 57%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (7 on Under) disagree here.

whaleUnder 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrOver 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xE5F0AE9cc9aeF77ae3c2A64c9E69caa3F335dc1d-1773531520731CTR	Overavg 42¢	$3.5K	$4.0K	+$458.29	32% 731-1553 (2284)
HO HomeRunHazard	Underavg 58¢	$3.6K	$3.6K	+$34.74	54% 17179-14402 (31581)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Overavg 41¢	$40.68	$67.46	+$0.99	55% 7128-5716 (12844)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100	Underavg 58.6¢	$52.58	$47.08	-$5.5	54% 2992-2575 (5567)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Underavg 58¢	$30.16	$30.45	+$0.29	58% 28754-21204 (49958)
FO Forecastication2<$100	Underavg 57¢	$18.81	$19.47	+$0.66	50% 7034-7032 (14066)
JU justaluckydudeCTR<$100	Overavg 62¢	$12.4	$9.5	-$2.9	53% 10787-9397 (20184)

0xE5F0AE9cc9aeF77ae3c2A64c9E69caa3F335dc1d-1773531520731CTR

Over

Invested

$3,499.67

Value

$4.0K

PnL

+$458.29

Record

32%

731-1553 (2284)

HomeRunHazard

Under

Invested

$3,613.11

Value

$3.6K

PnL

+$34.74

Record

54%

17179-14402 (31581)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$40.68

Value

$67.46

PnL

+$0.99

Record

55%

7128-5716 (12844)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100

Under

Invested

$52.58

Value

$47.08

PnL

-$5.5

Record

54%

2992-2575 (5567)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Under

Invested

$30.16

Value

$30.45

PnL

+$0.29

Record

58%

28754-21204 (49958)

Forecastication2<$100

Under

Invested

$18.81

Value

$19.47

PnL

+$0.66

Record

50%

7034-7032 (14066)

justaluckydudeCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$12.4

Value

$9.5

PnL

-$2.9

Record

53%

10787-9397 (20184)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 51%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (7 on Under) disagree here.

whaleUnder 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrOver 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance52.7%

50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$89.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

189.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.