Blues vs. Red Wings: O/U 5.5

2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Over (29%) · Over at 63¢ · $17K held · ended Oct 31

Over63¢Under37¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 29%

Total Value

$16.6K

Combined PnL

$635.33

Smart Money Entry

53.8¢ → 63¢

+17% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 63%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 7 top traders (29%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over63%

Under37%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over2 traders

Total Value$11.0K

Total Shares18,311

Combined PnL+$1.1K

Under5 traders

Total Value$5.6K

Total Shares14,578

Combined PnL-$496.12

Over — 29%Under — 71%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

17% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 2

Diverging

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrUnder 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 83% · 6

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xE5F0AE9cc9aeF77ae3c2A64c9E69caa3F335dc1d-1773531520731	Overavg 53.8¢	$9.9K	$11.0K	+$1.1K	32% 731-1553 (2284)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR	Underavg 46¢	$4.1K	$3.5K	-$530.52	74% 6686-2399 (9085)
ComingBackCTR	Underavg 47¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$0	61% 3943-2470 (6413)
0xheavy888CTR	Underavg 46¢	$512.5	$550	+$37.5	55% 7128-5716 (12844)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100	Underavg 47¢	$18.8	$16	-$2.8	54% 2992-2575 (5567)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Underavg 46¢	$2.3	$2	-$0.3	48% 2404-2633 (5037)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Overavg 64¢	$1.97	$1.85	-$0.12	49% 8037-8396 (16433)

0xE5F0AE9cc9aeF77ae3c2A64c9E69caa3F335dc1d-1773531520731

Over

Invested

$9,853.35

Value

$11.0K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

32%

731-1553 (2284)

AnonymousUsernameCTR

Under

Invested

$4,067.32

Value

$3.5K

PnL

-$530.52

Record

74%

6686-2399 (9085)

ComingBackCTR

Under

Invested

$1,500

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$0

Record

61%

3943-2470 (6413)

0xheavy888CTR

Under

Invested

$512.5

Value

$550

PnL

+$37.5

Record

55%

7128-5716 (12844)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$18.8

Value

$16

PnL

-$2.8

Record

54%

2992-2575 (5567)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.3

Value

PnL

-$0.3

Record

48%

2404-2633 (5037)

topdogbigboi<$100

Over

Invested

$1.97

Value

$1.85

PnL

-$0.12

Record

49%

8037-8396 (16433)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 63%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 7 top traders (29%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

17% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 2

Diverging

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrUnder 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 83% · 6

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance65.2%

63.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$53.49

Max Loss

-$100.00

153.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.