Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Red Wings, while the market favors Blues (52%). 2 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Blues vs. Red Wings
2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Red Wings (29%) · Red Wings at 49¢ · $7K held · ends Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Red Wings
7
Red Wings 29%
$7.1K
$52.76
48¢ → 48.5¢
+1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralRed Wings at 49%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 7 top traders (29%)Underdog side (market favors Blues 52%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
29% of non-arb traders are on Red Wings. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RO royalestakeCTR | Red Wingsavg 48¢ | $4.8K | $4.8K | +$50 | 47% 380-437 (817) |
SE sentrio | Bluesavg 52¢ | $1.0K | $993.25 | -$9.64 | 50% 24919-24613 (49532) |
PA para-VisionCTR | Red Wingsavg 48¢ | $928.94 | $938.61 | +$9.68 | 56% 215-167 (382) |
AN AnonymousUsername | Bluesavg 51¢ | $111.73 | $112.82 | +$1.1 | 74% 6672-2394 (9066) |
HE Herdonia | Bluesavg 51¢ | $112.37 | $112.37 | +$1.1 | 54% 3357-2905 (6262) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Bluesavg 51¢ | $32.14 | $32.14 | +$0 | 58% 28689-21179 (49868) |
RO roldy<$100 | Bluesavg 50¢ | $17.6 | $17.95 | +$0.53 | 55% 1422-1181 (2603) |
Invested
$4,800
Value
$4.8K
PnL
+$50
Record
47%
380-437 (817)
Invested
$1,002.89
Value
$993.25
PnL
-$9.64
Record
50%
24919-24613 (49532)
Invested
$928.94
Value
$938.61
PnL
+$9.68
Record
56%
215-167 (382)
Invested
$111.73
Value
$112.82
PnL
+$1.1
Record
74%
6672-2394 (9066)
Invested
$112.37
Value
$112.37
PnL
+$1.1
Record
54%
3357-2905 (6262)
Invested
$32.14
Value
$32.14
PnL
+$0
Record
58%
28689-21179 (49868)
Invested
$17.6
Value
$17.95
PnL
+$0.53
Record
55%
1422-1181 (2603)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
48.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.