Sharks vs. Utah
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Utah (71%) · Utah at 65¢ · $756 held · ends Nov 15
⚖️
Neutral
Utah
7
Utah 71%
$755.85
$1.3
64.8¢ → 64.5¢
+0% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralUtah at 65%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 57%
Freshness
Fresh
12h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
71% of non-arb traders are on Utah. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 57% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PA Pan9X | Utahavg 64.9¢ | $213.42 | $213.76 | +$0.34 | 49% 1449-1486 (2935) |
BO BoomLaLa | Utahavg 64.7¢ | $194.5 | $195.5 | +$1 | 33% 147-294 (441) |
PU purplegatto | Utahavg 65¢ | $181.67 | $181.67 | -$0 | 68% 2637-1226 (3863) |
GH ghorrock | Utahavg 64.8¢ | $124.49 | $92.9 | +$0.38 | 52% 1608-1475 (3083) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100 | Sharksavg 36¢ | $32.95 | $32.03 | -$0.92 | 46% 462-548 (1010) |
0X 0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69<$100 | Utahavg 64¢ | $31.44 | $31.93 | +$0.49 | 51% 147-140 (287) |
RO roldyCTR<$100 | Sharksavg 35¢ | $8.05 | $8.05 | +$0 | 39% 11-17 (28) |
Invested
$213.42
Value
$213.76
PnL
+$0.34
Record
49%
1449-1486 (2935)
Invested
$194.5
Value
$195.5
PnL
+$1
Record
33%
147-294 (441)
Invested
$181.67
Value
$181.67
PnL
-$0
Record
68%
2637-1226 (3863)
Invested
$124.49
Value
$92.9
PnL
+$0.38
Record
52%
1608-1475 (3083)
Invested
$32.95
Value
$32.03
PnL
-$0.92
Record
46%
462-548 (1010)
Invested
$31.44
Value
$31.93
PnL
+$0.49
Record
51%
147-140 (287)
Invested
$8.05
Value
$8.05
PnL
+$0
Record
39%
11-17 (28)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
64.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.