Sharks vs. Wild
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Wild (100%) · Wild at 70¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
Wild
6
Wild 100%
$2.1K
$18.18
69.1¢ → 69.5¢
+1% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralWild at 70%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 83%
Freshness
Mature
18h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Wild. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CH ChonkVision | Wildavg 68¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | +$23.82 | 55% 238-194 (432) |
HO HomeRunHazard | Wildavg 71¢ | $634.38 | $625 | -$9.38 | 54% 18308-15405 (33713) |
BO BoomLaLa | Wildavg 68¢ | $157.09 | $161.71 | +$3.47 | 53% 12541-11252 (23793) |
 nigiri99 | Wildavg 71¢ | $54.71 | $112 | -$0.8 | 46% 8686-10358 (19044) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Wildavg 69¢ | $32.36 | $73.05 | +$1.1 | 54% 10072-8456 (18528) |
RL RLWG<$100 | Wildavg 70¢ | $3.5 | $3.5 | -$0.03 | 50% 8337-8395 (16732) |
Invested
$1,079.71
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$23.82
Record
55%
238-194 (432)
Invested
$634.38
Value
$625
PnL
-$9.38
Record
54%
18308-15405 (33713)
Invested
$157.09
Value
$161.71
PnL
+$3.47
Record
53%
12541-11252 (23793)
nigiri99Invested
$54.71
Value
$112
PnL
-$0.8
Record
46%
8686-10358 (19044)
Invested
$32.36
Value
$73.05
PnL
+$1.1
Record
54%
10072-8456 (18528)
Invested
$3.5
Value
$3.5
PnL
-$0.03
Record
50%
8337-8395 (16732)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
69.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.