Kraken vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5

2 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Under (20%) · Under at 53¢ · $13K held · ends Nov 14

Over48¢Under52¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 20%

Total Value

$12.9K

Combined PnL

-$10.16

Smart Money Entry

53¢ → 52.5¢

-1% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 53%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 10 top traders (20%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over48%

Under53%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under2 traders

Total Value$7.4K

Total Shares14,019

Combined PnL-$68.53

Over8 traders

Total Value$5.5K

Total Shares11,520

Combined PnL+$58.38

Under — 20%Over — 80%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

20% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 71% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 78% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CH charlie5492	Underavg 53¢	$7.4K	$7.3K	-$68.99	— 6-5 (11)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR	Overavg 47¢	$2.4K	$2.4K	+$25.73	46% 82-98 (180)
0xheavy888CTR	Overavg 47¢	$910.04	$920.2	+$10.16	54% 503-421 (924)
HI hi774cCTR	Overavg 47¢	$904	$913.62	+$9.62	22% 179-619 (798)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Overavg 47¢	$811	$819.63	+$8.63	56% 3687-2847 (6534)
VeryLucky888CTR	Overavg 47¢	$235	$237.5	+$2.5	53% 1376-1196 (2572)
38 38791873984189CTR	Overavg 47¢	$143.82	$145.35	+$1.53	48% 3231-3545 (6776)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100	Underavg 51¢	$23.46	$23.92	+$0.46	48% 293-321 (614)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Overavg 47¢	$13.13	$13.26	+$0.14	53% 1809-1607 (3416)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Overavg 47¢	$7.05	$7.13	+$0.08	50% 1593-1619 (3212)

charlie5492

Under

Invested

$7,404.96

Value

$7.3K

PnL

-$68.99

Record

—

6-5 (11)

AnonymousUsernameCTR

Over

Invested

$2,418.62

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$25.73

Record

46%

82-98 (180)

0xheavy888CTR

Over

Invested

$910.04

Value

$920.2

PnL

+$10.16

Record

54%

503-421 (924)

hi774cCTR

Over

Invested

$904

Value

$913.62

PnL

+$9.62

Record

22%

179-619 (798)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Over

Invested

$811

Value

$819.63

PnL

+$8.63

Record

56%

3687-2847 (6534)

VeryLucky888CTR

Over

Invested

$235

Value

$237.5

PnL

+$2.5

Record

53%

1376-1196 (2572)

38791873984189CTR

Over

Invested

$143.82

Value

$145.35

PnL

+$1.53

Record

48%

3231-3545 (6776)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100

Under

Invested

$23.46

Value

$23.92

PnL

+$0.46

Record

48%

293-321 (614)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$13.13

Value

$13.26

PnL

+$0.14

Record

53%

1809-1607 (3416)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$7.05

Value

$7.13

PnL

+$0.08

Record

50%

1593-1619 (3212)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 53%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 10 top traders (20%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

20% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 71% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 78% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance54.7%

52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$82.67

Max Loss

-$100.00

182.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.