Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Kraken, while the market favors Hurricanes (59%). 6 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5)

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Kraken (75%) · Kraken at 42¢ · $481 held · ends Nov 14

Hurricanes59¢Kraken41¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Kraken

Consensus Traders

Kraken 75%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$481.29

Combined PnL

$4.51

Smart Money Entry

40.8¢ → 41.5¢

+2% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralKraken at 42%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Kraken

6 of 8 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Hurricanes 59%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Hurricanes59%

Kraken42%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Kraken6 traders

Total Value$318.53

Total Shares765

Combined PnL+$4.19

Hurricanes2 traders

Total Value$17.34

Total Shares29

Combined PnL+$0.32

Kraken — 75%Hurricanes — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

86% of non-arb traders are on Kraken. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrKraken 100% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Kraken 86% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Krakenavg 41¢	$244.77	$247.76	+$2.98	56% 3687-2847 (6534)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Hurricanesavg 59¢	$337.07	$145.41	+$6.1	48% 3214-3513 (6727)
└ Hurricanes leg	Hurricanesavg 59¢	$91.46	$93.01	-$0.16
└ Kraken leg	Krakenavg 40¢	$52.4	$52.4	+$6.26
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Krakenavg 40.6¢	$27.68	$28.29	+$0.61	52% 1721-1568 (3289)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100	Krakenavg 40¢	$23.6	$23.6	+$0	48% 286-306 (592)
PA Pan9X<$100	Hurricanesavg 59¢	$15.34	$15.6	+$0.26	50% 1587-1614 (3201)
HI hi774cCTR<$100	Krakenavg 40¢	$12.89	$12.89	+$0	22% 179-618 (797)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Krakenavg 41¢	$4.1	$4	-$0.1	41% 694-1010 (1704)
SH shiifooCTR<$100	Krakenavg 26¢	$1.3	$2	+$0.7	61% 1424-905 (2329)
0xheavy888<$100	Hurricanesavg 58¢	$1.68	$1.74	+$0.06	54% 496-419 (915)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Kraken

Invested

$244.77

Value

$247.76

PnL

+$2.98

Record

56%

3687-2847 (6534)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Hurricanes

Invested

$337.07

Value

$145.41

PnL

+$6.1

Record

48%

3214-3513 (6727)

Both legs:

Hurricanes$91.4659¢-$0.16

Kraken$52.440¢+$6.26

ghorrockCTR<$100

Kraken

Invested

$27.68

Value

$28.29

PnL

+$0.61

Record

52%

1721-1568 (3289)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100

Kraken

Invested

$23.6

Value

$23.6

PnL

+$0

Record

48%

286-306 (592)

Pan9X<$100

Hurricanes

Invested

$15.34

Value

$15.6

PnL

+$0.26

Record

50%

1587-1614 (3201)

hi774cCTR<$100

Kraken

Invested

$12.89

Value

$12.89

PnL

+$0

Record

22%

179-618 (797)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Kraken

Invested

$4.1

Value

PnL

-$0.1

Record

41%

694-1010 (1704)

shiifooCTR<$100

Kraken

Invested

$1.3

Value

PnL

+$0.7

Record

61%

1424-905 (2329)

0xheavy888<$100

Hurricanes

Invested

$1.68

Value

$1.74

PnL

+$0.06

Record

54%

496-419 (915)

Research grade

NeutralKraken at 42%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Kraken

6 of 8 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Hurricanes 59%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

86% of non-arb traders are on Kraken. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrKraken 100% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Kraken 86% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Kraken wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance43.7%

41.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$128.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

228.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.