Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (51%). 1 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Kraken vs. Flames: O/U 6.5
1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (20%) · Over at 50¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Over
5
Over 20%
$1.8K
$17.54
Research grade
NeutralOver at 50%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 5 top traders (20%)Underdog side (market favors Under 51%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RO roldyCTR | Overavg 49¢ | $1.6K | $1.6K | +$16.17 | 55% 1419-1179 (2598) |
AN AnonymousUsername | Underavg 50¢ | $173.72 | $175.46 | +$1.74 | 45% 670-828 (1498) |
 0xheavy888<$100 | Underavg 50.5¢ | $50.5 | $50.5 | +$0 | 55% 7057-5659 (12716) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Underavg 51¢ | $25.5 | $25 | -$0.25 | 58% 28421-20980 (49401) |
OM omnibus-076daa<$100 | Underavg 51¢ | $12.11 | $11.99 | -$0.12 | 49% 18995-19405 (38400) |
Invested
$1,560.35
Value
$1.6K
PnL
+$16.17
Record
55%
1419-1179 (2598)
Invested
$173.72
Value
$175.46
PnL
+$1.74
Record
45%
670-828 (1498)
0xheavy888<$100Invested
$50.5
Value
$50.5
PnL
+$0
Record
55%
7057-5659 (12716)
Invested
$25.5
Value
$25
PnL
-$0.25
Record
58%
28421-20980 (49401)
Invested
$12.11
Value
$11.99
PnL
-$0.12
Record
49%
18995-19405 (38400)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
49.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.