Kraken vs. Flames: O/U 5.5
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (33%) · Over at 61¢ · $491 held · ends Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Over
6
Over 33%
$490.51
$2.88
60¢ → 60.5¢
+1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 61%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FO Forecastication2 | Overavg 60¢ | $314.4 | $317.02 | +$2.62 | 50% 6970-6970 (13940) |
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR<$100 | Underavg 39¢ | $46.71 | $47.31 | +$0.6 | 53% 5579-4941 (10520) |
 0xheavy888CTR<$100 | Underavg 39.5¢ | $99.99 | $39.49 | +$0 | 55% 7057-5659 (12716) |
RO roldy<$100 | Overavg 60¢ | $36 | $36.3 | +$0.3 | 55% 1419-1179 (2598) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100 | Underavg 40¢ | $28.9 | $28.54 | -$0.36 | 59% 45382-31736 (77118) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Underavg 40¢ | $22.4 | $21.84 | -$0.28 | 58% 28421-20980 (49401) |
Invested
$314.4
Value
$317.02
PnL
+$2.62
Record
50%
6970-6970 (13940)
Invested
$46.71
Value
$47.31
PnL
+$0.6
Record
53%
5579-4941 (10520)
0xheavy888CTR<$100Invested
$99.99
Value
$39.49
PnL
+$0
Record
55%
7057-5659 (12716)
Invested
$36
Value
$36.3
PnL
+$0.3
Record
55%
1419-1179 (2598)
Invested
$28.9
Value
$28.54
PnL
-$0.36
Record
59%
45382-31736 (77118)
Invested
$22.4
Value
$21.84
PnL
-$0.28
Record
58%
28421-20980 (49401)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
60.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.