Kraken vs. Flames
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Kraken (60%) · Kraken at 51¢ · $1K held · ends Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Kraken
5
Kraken 60%
$1.2K
$7.38
49.6¢ → 50.5¢
+2% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralKraken at 51%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Kraken. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RO roldy | Krakenavg 50¢ | $1.0K | $1.0K | +$0 | 55% 1410-1176 (2586) |
 cassandra.torchlight | Krakenavg 47¢ | $142.88 | $152.01 | +$7.6 | 50% 273-275 (548) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Flamesavg 50.9¢ | $21.03 | $20.45 | -$0.59 | 57% 13342-10199 (23541) |
CO cocococococoCTR<$100 | Flamesavg 49¢ | $18.64 | $18.83 | +$0.19 | 52% 1649-1523 (3172) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Krakenavg 46¢ | $2.3 | $2.5 | +$0.18 | 52% 3688-3350 (7038) |
Invested
$1,047.13
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$0
Record
55%
1410-1176 (2586)
cassandra.torchlightInvested
$142.88
Value
$152.01
PnL
+$7.6
Record
50%
273-275 (548)
Invested
$21.03
Value
$20.45
PnL
-$0.59
Record
57%
13342-10199 (23541)
Invested
$18.64
Value
$18.83
PnL
+$0.19
Record
52%
1649-1523 (3172)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$2.3
Value
$2.5
PnL
+$0.18
Record
52%
3688-3350 (7038)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.