Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Sharks, while the market favors Penguins (56%). 2 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Penguins vs. Sharks
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Sharks (40%) · Sharks at 44¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
Sharks
5
Sharks 40%
$2.1K
$3.47
44¢ → 43.5¢
-1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralSharks at 44%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Penguins 56%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
3h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on Sharks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Sharksavg 44¢ | $1.2K | $1.2K | +$0 | 57% 3074-2312 (5386) |
 KnureKnumeCTR | Sharksavg 44¢ | $440 | $440 | +$0 | 1% 1-83 (84) |
CO cocococococo | Penguinsavg 56¢ | $388.7 | $392.17 | +$3.47 | 0% 0-30 (30) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Penguinsavg 56¢ | $45.36 | $45.36 | +$0 | 49% 440-464 (904) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Penguinsavg 56¢ | $3.68 | $3.68 | +$0 | 54% 358-310 (668) |
Invested
$1,202
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$0
Record
57%
3074-2312 (5386)
KnureKnumeCTRInvested
$440
Value
$440
PnL
+$0
Record
1%
1-83 (84)
Invested
$388.7
Value
$392.17
PnL
+$3.47
Record
0%
0-30 (30)
Invested
$45.36
Value
$45.36
PnL
+$0
Record
49%
440-464 (904)
Invested
$3.68
Value
$3.68
PnL
+$0
Record
54%
358-310 (668)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
43.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.