Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (94%). 3 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Penguins vs. Canadiens: O/U 6.5
3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (43%) · Under at 6.5¢ · $4K held · ended Oct 31
⚠️
Avoid
Under
7
Under 43%
$3.8K
$177.31
48¢ → 6.5¢
-86% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 7%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 7 top traders (43%)Underdog side (market favors Over 94%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x0A77exmmCTR | Underavg 48¢ | $1.8K | $1.8K | +$19.19 | 54% 2311-1998 (4309) |
 ComingBack | Overavg 52¢ | $1.5K | $1.5K | -$14.42 | 61% 3947-2472 (6419) |
AN AnonymousUsername | Overavg 51¢ | $118.7 | $221.1 | +$102.41 | 73% 6739-2446 (9185) |
HO HomeRunHazard | Overavg 51¢ | $102 | $190 | +$88 | 54% 17200-14430 (31630) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Overavg 51¢ | $25.5 | $25.5 | -$0 | 58% 28900-21323 (50223) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Underavg 47¢ | $19.75 | $2.1 | -$17.65 | 57% 13944-10725 (24669) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Underavg 22¢ | $0.28 | $0.06 | -$0.22 | 48% 8249-8767 (17016) |
Invested
$1,842.72
Value
$1.8K
PnL
+$19.19
Record
54%
2311-1998 (4309)
ComingBackInvested
$1,500
Value
$1.5K
PnL
-$14.42
Record
61%
3947-2472 (6419)
Invested
$118.7
Value
$221.1
PnL
+$102.41
Record
73%
6739-2446 (9185)
Invested
$102
Value
$190
PnL
+$88
Record
54%
17200-14430 (31630)
Invested
$25.5
Value
$25.5
PnL
-$0
Record
58%
28900-21323 (50223)
Invested
$19.75
Value
$2.1
PnL
-$17.65
Record
57%
13944-10725 (24669)
Invested
$0.28
Value
$0.06
PnL
-$0.22
Record
48%
8249-8767 (17016)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
6.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.