Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Canadiens, while the market favors Penguins (69%). 5 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Canadiens (-1.5)

5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Canadiens (71%) · Canadiens at 32¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 31

Canadiens32¢Penguins68¢Ends Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Canadiens

Consensus Traders

Canadiens 71%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.2K

Combined PnL

-$42.76

Smart Money Entry

33¢ → 31.5¢

-5% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralCanadiens at 32%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Canadiens

5 of 7 top traders (71%)Underdog side (market favors Penguins 69%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Canadiens32%

Penguins69%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Canadiens5 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares4,499

Combined PnL-$68.23

Penguins2 traders

Total Value$702.13

Total Shares1,025

Combined PnL+$25.47

Canadiens — 71%Penguins — 29%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Canadiens. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleCanadiens 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpCanadiens 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrCanadiens 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedCanadiens 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Canadiens 71% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR	Canadiensavg 33¢	$841.83	$803.57	-$38.26	74% 6674-2397 (9071)
TO tomb2456	Penguinsavg 66¢	$671.23	$696.65	+$25.43	50% 292-288 (580)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR	Canadiensavg 33¢	$330	$315	-$15	53% 5632-4972 (10604)
WE WeBuyHighWeSelllowCTR	Canadiensavg 33¢	$264	$252	-$12	54% 4886-4115 (9001)
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100	Canadiensavg 33.5¢	$65.35	$65.26	-$1.94	58% 28707-21186 (49893)
└ Canadiens leg	Canadiensavg 33.5¢	$39.52	$37.17	-$2.35
└ Penguins leg	Penguinsavg 63¢	$25.83	$28.09	+$0.41
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Canadiensavg 33.5¢	$26.8	$25.2	-$1.6	55% 7125-5714 (12839)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Canadiensavg 33.5¢	$22.8	$21.44	-$1.36	57% 13809-10582 (24391)
SE sentrio<$100	Penguinsavg 68¢	$5.44	$5.48	+$0.04	50% 24920-24613 (49533)

AnonymousUsernameCTR

Canadiens

Invested

$841.83

Value

$803.57

PnL

-$38.26

Record

74%

6674-2397 (9071)

tomb2456

Penguins

Invested

$671.23

Value

$696.65

PnL

+$25.43

Record

50%

292-288 (580)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR

Canadiens

Invested

$330

Value

$315

PnL

-$15

Record

53%

5632-4972 (10604)

WeBuyHighWeSelllowCTR

Canadiens

Invested

$264

Value

$252

PnL

-$12

Record

54%

4886-4115 (9001)

LeLynxMalynxARB<$100

Canadiens

Invested

$65.35

Value

$65.26

PnL

-$1.94

Record

58%

28707-21186 (49893)

Both legs:

Canadiens$39.5233.5¢-$2.35

Penguins$25.8363¢+$0.41

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Canadiens

Invested

$26.8

Value

$25.2

PnL

-$1.6

Record

55%

7125-5714 (12839)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Canadiens

Invested

$22.8

Value

$21.44

PnL

-$1.36

Record

57%

13809-10582 (24391)

sentrio<$100

Penguins

Invested

$5.44

Value

$5.48

PnL

+$0.04

Record

50%

24920-24613 (49533)

Research grade

NeutralCanadiens at 32%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Canadiens

5 of 7 top traders (71%)Underdog side (market favors Penguins 69%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Canadiens. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleCanadiens 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpCanadiens 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrCanadiens 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedCanadiens 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Canadiens 71% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Canadiens wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance33.6%

31.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$197.65

Max Loss

-$100.00

297.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.