Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Penguins, while the market favors Canadiens (75%). 2 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Spread: Penguins (-1.5)
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Penguins (33%) · Penguins at 26¢ · $1K held · ends Oct 31
⚠️
Avoid
Penguins
6
Penguins 33%
$1.2K
$33.14
24¢ → 25.5¢
+6% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidPenguins at 26%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Canadiens 75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
33% of non-arb traders are on Penguins. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TA taylorsversionCTR | Penguinsavg 24¢ | $911.55 | $949.53 | +$37.98 | 52% 127-116 (243) |
 0xheavy888 | Canadiensavg 76¢ | $300 | $223.5 | -$4.5 | 55% 7125-5714 (12839) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Canadiensavg 76¢ | $25.84 | $25.5 | -$0.34 | 58% 28707-21186 (49893) |
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100 | Canadiensavg 75¢ | $17.25 | $17.25 | +$0 | 54% 2988-2575 (5563) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Canadiensavg 75¢ | $3.75 | $3.73 | -$0.02 | 48% 2396-2627 (5023) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Penguinsavg 25¢ | $1.03 | $1.05 | +$0.02 | 53% 4646-4187 (8833) |
Invested
$911.55
Value
$949.53
PnL
+$37.98
Record
52%
127-116 (243)
0xheavy888Invested
$300
Value
$223.5
PnL
-$4.5
Record
55%
7125-5714 (12839)
Invested
$25.84
Value
$25.5
PnL
-$0.34
Record
58%
28707-21186 (49893)
Invested
$17.25
Value
$17.25
PnL
+$0
Record
54%
2988-2575 (5563)
Invested
$3.75
Value
$3.73
PnL
-$0.02
Record
48%
2396-2627 (5023)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$1.03
Value
$1.05
PnL
+$0.02
Record
53%
4646-4187 (8833)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
25.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.