Spread: Penguins (-1.5)

8 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Ducks (73%) · Ducks at 98¢ · $7K held · ended Nov 9

Penguins2¢Ducks98¢Ended Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Ducks

Consensus Traders

Ducks 73%

Total Value

$7.3K

Combined PnL

$200.21

Smart Money Entry

71¢ → 97.8¢

+38% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralDucks at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Ducks

8 of 11 top traders (73%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Penguins2%

Ducks98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Ducks8 traders

Total Value$6.4K

Total Shares8,823

Combined PnL+$180.05

Penguins3 traders

Total Value$879.79

Total Shares3,099

Combined PnL+$20.17

Ducks — 73%Penguins — 27%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

88% of non-arb traders are on Ducks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleDucks 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrDucks 86% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedDucks 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Ducks 88% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Ducksavg 70.9¢	$5.4K	$5.4K	+$4	54% 19992-16872 (36864)
nigiri99CTR	Penguinsavg 27.8¢	$853.85	$875.93	+$22.08	45% 14434-17741 (32175)
38 38791873984189	Ducksavg 71.1¢	$733.37	$452.85	+$132.26	48% 70301-75984 (146285)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Ducksavg 72¢	$292	$338.64	+$46.64	50% 2217-2191 (4408)
0xheavy888	Ducksavg 71.5¢	$143	$141	-$2	56% 8780-6967 (15747)
GH ghorrock<$100	Ducksavg 71.2¢	$56.54	$55.96	-$0.58	57% 24691-18283 (42974)
PA Pan9X<$100	Ducksavg 71.6¢	$17.19	$16.92	-$0.27	52% 27288-24794 (52082)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Penguinsavg 3.7¢	$5.6	$3.68	-$1.92	50% 65492-65807 (131299)
RL RLWG<$100	Ducksavg 71¢	$3.55	$3.53	-$0.03	50% 8560-8732 (17292)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Ducksavg 70¢	$5	$3.53	+$0.03	52% 9525-8636 (18161)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Penguinsavg 15¢	$0.18	$0.19	+$0.01	46% 2028-2381 (4409)

HomeRunHazard

Ducks

Invested

$5,422

Value

$5.4K

PnL

+$4

Record

54%

19992-16872 (36864)

nigiri99CTR

Penguins

Invested

$853.85

Value

$875.93

PnL

+$22.08

Record

45%

14434-17741 (32175)

38791873984189

Ducks

Invested

$733.37

Value

$452.85

PnL

+$132.26

Record

48%

70301-75984 (146285)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Ducks

Invested

$292

Value

$338.64

PnL

+$46.64

Record

50%

2217-2191 (4408)

0xheavy888

Ducks

Invested

$143

Value

$141

PnL

-$2

Record

56%

8780-6967 (15747)

ghorrock<$100

Ducks

Invested

$56.54

Value

$55.96

PnL

-$0.58

Record

57%

24691-18283 (42974)

Pan9X<$100

Ducks

Invested

$17.19

Value

$16.92

PnL

-$0.27

Record

52%

27288-24794 (52082)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Penguins

Invested

$5.6

Value

$3.68

PnL

-$1.92

Record

50%

65492-65807 (131299)

RLWG<$100

Ducks

Invested

$3.55

Value

$3.53

PnL

-$0.03

Record

50%

8560-8732 (17292)

ameisgoat11<$100

Ducks

Invested

Value

$3.53

PnL

+$0.03

Record

52%

9525-8636 (18161)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Penguins

Invested

$0.18

Value

$0.19

PnL

+$0.01

Record

46%

2028-2381 (4409)

Research grade

NeutralDucks at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Ducks

8 of 11 top traders (73%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

88% of non-arb traders are on Ducks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleDucks 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrDucks 86% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedDucks 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Ducks 88% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Ducks wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.8%

97.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.20

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.