Flyers vs. Capitals: O/U 6.5
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (33%) · Under at 57¢ · $8K held · ends Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
Under
6
Under 33%
$8.1K
$106.64
55¢ → 57.5¢
+4% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 57%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TA taylorsversion | Underavg 55¢ | $5.9K | $6.0K | +$163.38 | 53% 118-103 (221) |
 ComingBackCTR | Overavg 46¢ | $1.0K | $945.65 | -$54.35 | 61% 3850-2418 (6268) |
 0xheavy888CTR | Overavg 43.6¢ | $915 | $913.5 | -$1.5 | 56% 6915-5529 (12444) |
LP lpcapital1 | Underavg 57¢ | $205.61 | $207.41 | +$1.8 | 63% 1403-820 (2223) |
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100 | Overavg 46¢ | $48.76 | $46.11 | -$2.65 | 50% 6813-6827 (13640) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Overavg 44¢ | $4.4 | $4.35 | -$0.05 | 47% 2054-2350 (4404) |
Invested
$5,860.56
Value
$6.0K
PnL
+$163.38
Record
53%
118-103 (221)
ComingBackCTRInvested
$1,000
Value
$945.65
PnL
-$54.35
Record
61%
3850-2418 (6268)
0xheavy888CTRInvested
$915
Value
$913.5
PnL
-$1.5
Record
56%
6915-5529 (12444)
Invested
$205.61
Value
$207.41
PnL
+$1.8
Record
63%
1403-820 (2223)
Invested
$48.76
Value
$46.11
PnL
-$2.65
Record
50%
6813-6827 (13640)
Invested
$4.4
Value
$4.35
PnL
-$0.05
Record
47%
2054-2350 (4404)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
57.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.