Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (52%). 6 of 14 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Flyers vs. Capitals: O/U 5.5

6 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Over (43%) · Over at 48¢ · $11K held · ended Oct 28

Over48¢Under52¢Ended Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 43%

Total Value

$10.6K

Combined PnL

-$728.59

Smart Money Entry

55.5¢ → 48¢

-14% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 48%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 14 top traders (43%)Underdog side (market favors Under 52%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over48%

Under52%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over6 traders

Total Value$8.6K

Total Shares17,201

Combined PnL-$963.33

Under8 traders

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares4,108

Combined PnL+$234.74

Over — 43%Under — 57%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Overavg 56¢	$4.6K	$3.9K	-$658.33	54% 16882-14151 (31033)
0X 0xE5F0AE9cc9aeF77ae3c2A64c9E69caa3F335dc1d-1773531520731CTR	Overavg 55¢	$2.7K	$2.7K	-$25	32% 719-1542 (2261)
MR MrBentlyCTR	Overavg 55¢	$2.0K	$1.7K	-$254.8	52% 514-471 (985)
0xheavy888	Underavg 44¢	$1.1K	$1.3K	+$200	56% 6927-5543 (12470)
WE WeBuyHighWeSelllow	Underavg 44¢	$517.86	$535.52	+$17.65	54% 4812-4045 (8857)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Overavg 56¢	$125.12	$107.96	-$17.16	59% 44722-31116 (75838)
FO Forecastication2<$100	Underavg 45¢	$90.45	$91.46	+$1.01	50% 6816-6831 (13647)
MO mooseborzoii<$100	Underavg 44¢	$49.97	$59.06	+$9.09	50% 1143-1133 (2276)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100	Overavg 55¢	$51.7	$45.12	-$6.58	54% 2922-2511 (5433)
NA NatoAlfista<$100	Underavg 45¢	$25.2	$29.12	+$3.92	50% 3719-3693 (7412)
TA taylorsversion<$100	Underavg 43¢	$13.33	$16.12	+$2.79	53% 118-103 (221)
PU purplegatto<$100	Underavg 45¢	$10.8	$10.68	-$0.12	50% 5777-5884 (11661)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Overavg 56¢	$10.22	$8.76	-$1.46	53% 3186-2848 (6034)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Underavg 44¢	$2.2	$2.6	+$0.4	47% 2091-2369 (4460)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Over

Invested

$4,608.29

Value

$3.9K

PnL

-$658.33

Record

54%

16882-14151 (31033)

0xE5F0AE9cc9aeF77ae3c2A64c9E69caa3F335dc1d-1773531520731CTR

Over

Invested

$2,749.99

Value

$2.7K

PnL

-$25

Record

32%

719-1542 (2261)

MrBentlyCTR

Over

Invested

$2,002

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$254.8

Record

52%

514-471 (985)

0xheavy888

Under

Invested

$1,100

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$200

Record

56%

6927-5543 (12470)

WeBuyHighWeSelllow

Under

Invested

$517.86

Value

$535.52

PnL

+$17.65

Record

54%

4812-4045 (8857)

UpTheBluesCTR

Over

Invested

$125.12

Value

$107.96

PnL

-$17.16

Record

59%

44722-31116 (75838)

Forecastication2<$100

Under

Invested

$90.45

Value

$91.46

PnL

+$1.01

Record

50%

6816-6831 (13647)

mooseborzoii<$100

Under

Invested

$49.97

Value

$59.06

PnL

+$9.09

Record

50%

1143-1133 (2276)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$51.7

Value

$45.12

PnL

-$6.58

Record

54%

2922-2511 (5433)

NatoAlfista<$100

Under

Invested

$25.2

Value

$29.12

PnL

+$3.92

Record

50%

3719-3693 (7412)

taylorsversion<$100

Under

Invested

$13.33

Value

$16.12

PnL

+$2.79

Record

53%

118-103 (221)

purplegatto<$100

Under

Invested

$10.8

Value

$10.68

PnL

-$0.12

Record

50%

5777-5884 (11661)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$10.22

Value

$8.76

PnL

-$1.46

Record

53%

3186-2848 (6034)

ameisgoat11<$100

Under

Invested

$2.2

Value

$2.6

PnL

+$0.4

Record

47%

2091-2369 (4460)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 48%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 14 top traders (43%)Underdog side (market favors Under 52%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance50.2%

48.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$99.01

Max Loss

-$100.00

199.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.