Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Flyers, while the market favors Capitals (79%). 3 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Spread: Capitals (-1.5)
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Flyers (50%) · Flyers at 21¢ · $47 held · ended Oct 28
⚠️
Avoid
Flyers
6
Flyers 50%
$47.35
-$0.4
Research grade
AvoidFlyers at 21%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Capitals 79%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 poshposhCTR<$100 | Flyersavg 49¢ | $17.23 | $16.91 | -$0.32 | 59% 9478-6467 (15945) |
 0xheavy888CTR<$100 | Flyersavg 52¢ | $25 | $10 | -$3 | 56% 6932-5550 (12482) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100 | Flyersavg 42¢ | $6 | $9 | +$3 | 49% 18690-19120 (37810) |
BO BoomLaLa<$100 | Capitalsavg 58¢ | $8.29 | $7.93 | -$0.36 | 53% 11468-9983 (21451) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Capitalsavg 35¢ | $2.02 | $2.77 | +$0.75 | 57% 13241-10089 (23330) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Capitalsavg 61¢ | $1.22 | $0.74 | -$0.48 | 53% 3243-2909 (6152) |
poshposhCTR<$100Invested
$17.23
Value
$16.91
PnL
-$0.32
Record
59%
9478-6467 (15945)
0xheavy888CTR<$100Invested
$25
Value
$10
PnL
-$3
Record
56%
6932-5550 (12482)
Invested
$6
Value
$9
PnL
+$3
Record
49%
18690-19120 (37810)
Invested
$8.29
Value
$7.93
PnL
-$0.36
Record
53%
11468-9983 (21451)
Invested
$2.02
Value
$2.77
PnL
+$0.75
Record
57%
13241-10089 (23330)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$1.22
Value
$0.74
PnL
-$0.48
Record
53%
3243-2909 (6152)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
21.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.