Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Flyers, while the market favors Capitals (69%). 5 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Flyers vs. Capitals
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Flyers (71%) · Flyers at 32¢ · $3K held · ends Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
Flyers
7
Flyers 71%
$2.5K
-$3.35
31.7¢ → 31.5¢
-1% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralFlyers at 32%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)Underdog side (market favors Capitals 69%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 91%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Flyers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 ComingBackCTR | Flyersavg 32¢ | $999.04 | $983.43 | -$15.61 | 61% 3850-2418 (6268) |
TA taylorsversion | Capitalsavg 68¢ | $633.96 | $638.62 | +$4.66 | 53% 118-103 (221) |
CO cocococococo | Capitalsavg 68¢ | $377.4 | $374.63 | -$2.78 | 52% 1646-1520 (3166) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Flyersavg 31¢ | $276.94 | $285.87 | +$4.47 | 58% 40758-29479 (70237) |
PA para-VisionCTR | Flyersavg 31¢ | $143.94 | $146.26 | +$2.32 | 56% 198-157 (355) |
 0xheavy888CTR<$100 | Flyersavg 31¢ | $62 | $65 | +$3 | 56% 6915-5529 (12444) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Flyersavg 32¢ | $37.44 | $37.44 | +$0.58 | 58% 28123-20732 (48855) |
ComingBackCTRInvested
$999.04
Value
$983.43
PnL
-$15.61
Record
61%
3850-2418 (6268)
Invested
$633.96
Value
$638.62
PnL
+$4.66
Record
53%
118-103 (221)
Invested
$377.4
Value
$374.63
PnL
-$2.78
Record
52%
1646-1520 (3166)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$276.94
Value
$285.87
PnL
+$4.47
Record
58%
40758-29479 (70237)
Invested
$143.94
Value
$146.26
PnL
+$2.32
Record
56%
198-157 (355)
0xheavy888CTR<$100Invested
$62
Value
$65
PnL
+$3
Record
56%
6915-5529 (12444)
Invested
$37.44
Value
$37.44
PnL
+$0.58
Record
58%
28123-20732 (48855)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
31.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.