Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Canucks, while the market favors Flyers (56%). 4 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Flyers vs. Canucks
4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Canucks (44%) · Canucks at 45¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 10
⚖️
Neutral
Canucks
9
Canucks 44%
$5.9K
$9.67
44.1¢ → 44.5¢
+1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralCanucks at 45%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 9 top traders (44%)Underdog side (market favors Flyers 56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RA RaisuuCTR | Canucksavg 44¢ | $2.9K | $2.9K | +$32.52 | 63% 17-10 (27) |
 nigiri99 | Flyersavg 56¢ | $2.5K | $2.5K | -$22.4 | 45% 14909-18248 (33157) |
RO royalestake | Flyersavg 55¢ | $658.11 | $365.25 | +$3.29 | 47% 427-474 (901) |
WE westing.v1CTR | Canucksavg 46.2¢ | $107.93 | $103.87 | -$4.06 | 51% 69-66 (135) |
 0xheavy888<$100 | Flyersavg 55¢ | $28.9 | $29.16 | +$0.26 | 56% 9045-7130 (16175) |
IC ic4cream<$100 | Flyersavg 56¢ | $16.8 | $16.65 | -$0.15 | 56% 2892-2280 (5172) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Flyersavg 56¢ | $7.31 | $15.17 | +$0.06 | 57% 25623-19105 (44728) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Canucksavg 43.7¢ | $9.14 | $9.2 | +$0.17 | 53% 28430-25699 (54129) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100 | Canucksavg 45¢ | $2.26 | $2.23 | -$0.03 | 50% 24147-24262 (48409) |
Invested
$2,862.15
Value
$2.9K
PnL
+$32.52
Record
63%
17-10 (27)
nigiri99Invested
$2,508.8
Value
$2.5K
PnL
-$22.4
Record
45%
14909-18248 (33157)
Invested
$658.11
Value
$365.25
PnL
+$3.29
Record
47%
427-474 (901)
Invested
$107.93
Value
$103.87
PnL
-$4.06
Record
51%
69-66 (135)
0xheavy888<$100Invested
$28.9
Value
$29.16
PnL
+$0.26
Record
56%
9045-7130 (16175)
Invested
$16.8
Value
$16.65
PnL
-$0.15
Record
56%
2892-2280 (5172)
Invested
$7.31
Value
$15.17
PnL
+$0.06
Record
57%
25623-19105 (44728)
Invested
$9.14
Value
$9.2
PnL
+$0.17
Record
53%
28430-25699 (54129)
Invested
$2.26
Value
$2.23
PnL
-$0.03
Record
50%
24147-24262 (48409)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
44.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.