Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (56%). 5 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Flyers vs. Oilers: O/U 6.5
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (100%) · Over at 45¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
Over
5
Over 100%
$2.8K
-$81.94
45.3¢ → 44.5¢
-2% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 45%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Under 56%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 92%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Overavg 45.5¢ | $1.6K | $1.6K | -$53.11 | 57% 3221-2429 (5650) |
HI hi774cCTR | Overavg 45¢ | $1.1K | $1.0K | -$23.54 | 14% 75-470 (545) |
38 38791873984189CTR | Overavg 45¢ | $222.95 | $218.02 | -$4.93 | 48% 1273-1369 (2642) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Overavg 45¢ | $8.95 | $8.75 | -$0.2 | 54% 553-469 (1022) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Overavg 45¢ | $6.75 | $6.6 | -$0.15 | 48% 654-705 (1359) |
Invested
$1,623
Value
$1.6K
PnL
-$53.11
Record
57%
3221-2429 (5650)
Invested
$1,059.46
Value
$1.0K
PnL
-$23.54
Record
14%
75-470 (545)
Invested
$222.95
Value
$218.02
PnL
-$4.93
Record
48%
1273-1369 (2642)
Invested
$8.95
Value
$8.75
PnL
-$0.2
Record
54%
553-469 (1022)
Invested
$6.75
Value
$6.6
PnL
-$0.15
Record
48%
654-705 (1359)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
44.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.