Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (76%). 4 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Flyers vs. Oilers: O/U 5.5
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Over (57%) · Over at 25¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Over
7
Over 57%
1 arb excluded
$5.4K
$20.93
56¢ → 24.5¢
-56% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 25%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors Under 76%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100 | Overavg 55¢ | $4.2K | $4.4K | +$207.24 | 57% 3229-2433 (5662) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 55¢ | $2.3K | $2.3K | +$40.42 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 40.4¢ | $1.9K | $2.1K | +$166.82 | |
 RN1CTR | Overavg 56¢ | $613.76 | $613.76 | +$0 | 57% 4059-3079 (7138) |
SN SnakeBall | Underavg 40.1¢ | $195.39 | $212.14 | +$16.75 | 47% 299-342 (641) |
38 38791873984189CTR | Overavg 56¢ | $151.76 | $151.76 | +$0 | 48% 1430-1573 (3003) |
12 0x1262...056f<$100 | Underavg 42.7¢ | $25.61 | $34.2 | +$8.59 | — |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Overavg 56¢ | $31.36 | $22.61 | -$5.36 | 49% 693-734 (1427) |
5D 0x5d40...ba95<$100 | Underavg 53¢ | $14.6 | $15.6 | +$1.01 | — |
 0xheavy888CTR<$100 | Overavg 58¢ | $2.26 | $2.21 | -$0.06 | 55% 205-165 (370) |
Invested
$4,157.18
Value
$4.4K
PnL
+$207.24
Record
57%
3229-2433 (5662)
Both legs:
RN1CTRInvested
$613.76
Value
$613.76
PnL
+$0
Record
57%
4059-3079 (7138)
Invested
$195.39
Value
$212.14
PnL
+$16.75
Record
47%
299-342 (641)
Invested
$151.76
Value
$151.76
PnL
+$0
Record
48%
1430-1573 (3003)
Invested
$25.61
Value
$34.2
PnL
+$8.59
Record
—
Invested
$31.36
Value
$22.61
PnL
-$5.36
Record
49%
693-734 (1427)
Invested
$14.6
Value
$15.6
PnL
+$1.01
Record
—
0xheavy888CTR<$100Invested
$2.26
Value
$2.21
PnL
-$0.06
Record
55%
205-165 (370)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
24.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.