Spread: Oilers (-1.5)
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Flyers (60%) · Flyers at 56¢ · $393 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
Flyers
5
Flyers 60%
$393.09
-$4.66
56.7¢ → 56.5¢
+0% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralFlyers at 56%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Flyers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | Flyersavg 56.7¢ | $310.78 | $306.75 | -$4.03 | 57% 3183-2408 (5591) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Oilersavg 42¢ | $55.52 | $55.52 | +$0 | 48% 1202-1284 (2486) |
PU purplegattoCTR<$100 | Oilersavg 43¢ | $25.11 | $24.52 | -$0.58 | 69% 2581-1180 (3761) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Flyersavg 56¢ | $3.49 | $3.49 | +$0 | 54% 512-439 (951) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Flyersavg 57¢ | $2.85 | $2.8 | -$0.05 | 30% 250-585 (835) |
Invested
$310.78
Value
$306.75
PnL
-$4.03
Record
57%
3183-2408 (5591)
Invested
$55.52
Value
$55.52
PnL
+$0
Record
48%
1202-1284 (2486)
Invested
$25.11
Value
$24.52
PnL
-$0.58
Record
69%
2581-1180 (3761)
Invested
$3.49
Value
$3.49
PnL
+$0
Record
54%
512-439 (951)
Invested
$2.85
Value
$2.8
PnL
-$0.05
Record
30%
250-585 (835)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
56.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.