Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Flyers, while the market favors Oilers (83%). 1 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Spread: Flyers (-1.5)
1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Flyers (20%) · Flyers at 18¢ · $271 held · ends Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Flyers
5
Flyers 20%
$271.06
$6.46
Research grade
AvoidFlyers at 18%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 5 top traders (20%)Underdog side (market favors Oilers 83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
20% of non-arb traders are on Flyers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TA taylorsversionCTR | Flyersavg 17¢ | $230.17 | $236.94 | +$6.77 | 53% 98-86 (184) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Oilersavg 83¢ | $12.45 | $12.3 | -$0.15 | 48% 659-706 (1365) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Oilersavg 83¢ | $9.08 | $8.97 | -$0.11 | 54% 563-474 (1037) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Oilersavg 82¢ | $8.75 | $8.75 | +$0 | 48% 1310-1415 (2725) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Oilersavg 83¢ | $4.15 | $4.1 | -$0.05 | 32% 282-611 (893) |
Invested
$230.17
Value
$236.94
PnL
+$6.77
Record
53%
98-86 (184)
Invested
$12.45
Value
$12.3
PnL
-$0.15
Record
48%
659-706 (1365)
Invested
$9.08
Value
$8.97
PnL
-$0.11
Record
54%
563-474 (1037)
Invested
$8.75
Value
$8.75
PnL
+$0
Record
48%
1310-1415 (2725)
Invested
$4.15
Value
$4.1
PnL
-$0.05
Record
32%
282-611 (893)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
17.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.