Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Flyers, while the market favors Oilers (67%). 7 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Flyers vs. Oilers

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Flyers (78%) · Flyers at 34¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 12

Flyers34¢Oilers66¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Flyers

Consensus Traders

Flyers 78%

Total Value

$5.2K

Combined PnL

$11.79

Smart Money Entry

33.1¢ → 33.5¢

+1% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralFlyers at 34%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Flyers

7 of 9 top traders (78%)Underdog side (market favors Oilers 67%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Flyers34%

Oilers67%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Flyers7 traders

Total Value$3.3K

Total Shares9,965

Combined PnL-$13.97

Oilers2 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares2,938

Combined PnL+$25.76

Flyers — 78%Oilers — 22%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

78% of non-arb traders are on Flyers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrFlyers 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedFlyers 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Flyers 75% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VeryLucky888CTR	Flyersavg 33¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	+$0	51% 361-341 (702)
PU purplegatto	Oilersavg 65¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$0	69% 2576-1173 (3749)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Flyersavg 33.4¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	-$13.12	57% 3109-2336 (5445)
RO royalestake	Oilersavg 65¢	$837.09	$862.85	+$25.76	2% 3-183 (186)
SE sentrioCTR	Flyersavg 33.4¢	$116.57	$115.06	-$1.51	35% 280-514 (794)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Flyersavg 33.6¢	$69.6	$68.35	-$1.25	54% 461-396 (857)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Flyersavg 32¢	$62.62	$64.58	+$1.96	48% 1056-1134 (2190)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Flyersavg 33¢	$50.49	$50.49	+$0	48% 512-544 (1056)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Flyersavg 34¢	$1.7	$1.65	-$0.05	28% 205-534 (739)

VeryLucky888CTR

Flyers

Invested

$1,980

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$0

Record

51%

361-341 (702)

purplegatto

Oilers

Invested

$1,072.42

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$0

Record

69%

2576-1173 (3749)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Flyers

Invested

$1,021.3

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$13.12

Record

57%

3109-2336 (5445)

royalestake

Oilers

Invested

$837.09

Value

$862.85

PnL

+$25.76

Record

3-183 (186)

sentrioCTR

Flyers

Invested

$116.57

Value

$115.06

PnL

-$1.51

Record

35%

280-514 (794)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Flyers

Invested

$69.6

Value

$68.35

PnL

-$1.25

Record

54%

461-396 (857)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Flyers

Invested

$62.62

Value

$64.58

PnL

+$1.96

Record

48%

1056-1134 (2190)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Flyers

Invested

$50.49

Value

$50.49

PnL

+$0

Record

48%

512-544 (1056)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Flyers

Invested

$1.7

Value

$1.65

PnL

-$0.05

Record

28%

205-534 (739)

Research grade

NeutralFlyers at 34%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Flyers

7 of 9 top traders (78%)Underdog side (market favors Oilers 67%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

78% of non-arb traders are on Flyers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrFlyers 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedFlyers 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Flyers 75% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Flyers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance35.6%

33.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$180.66

Max Loss

-$100.00

280.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.