Spread: Blue Jackets (-1.5)
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Flyers (40%) · Flyers at 68¢ · $8K held · ends Nov 15
⚖️
Neutral
Flyers
5
Flyers 40%
$7.7K
-$151.57
67¢ → 67.5¢
+1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralFlyers at 68%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on Flyers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh | Flyersavg 67¢ | $4.9K | $4.9K | +$0 | 50% 2600-2575 (5175) |
0X 0x0A77exmmCTR | Blue Jacketsavg 33¢ | $2.4K | $2.3K | -$145.44 | 46% 52-61 (113) |
 nigiri99CTR | Blue Jacketsavg 33¢ | $359.37 | $348.48 | -$10.89 | 52% 602-565 (1167) |
38 38791873984189 | Flyersavg 67¢ | $300.63 | $225.61 | +$4.97 | 47% 3383-3741 (7124) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Blue Jacketsavg 33¢ | $3.57 | $3.35 | -$0.22 | 49% 1694-1746 (3440) |
Invested
$4,858.22
Value
$4.9K
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
2600-2575 (5175)
Invested
$2,399.76
Value
$2.3K
PnL
-$145.44
Record
46%
52-61 (113)
nigiri99CTRInvested
$359.37
Value
$348.48
PnL
-$10.89
Record
52%
602-565 (1167)
Invested
$300.63
Value
$225.61
PnL
+$4.97
Record
47%
3383-3741 (7124)
Invested
$3.57
Value
$3.35
PnL
-$0.22
Record
49%
1694-1746 (3440)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
67.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.